Serie A · 2023Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Monza

WLLDW

1–5Full-time recap

Inter

WWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Monza	Inter
Shots	9 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.02 xG/match	4.37 xG/match▲
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Monza: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.06 xG. Inter: 20 shots, 7 on target, 4.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 1.06 xG · Inter 4.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Monza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsMonza · Inter16.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Monza	Inter	Baseline
Shots	12.6 shots/match	16.2 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	15.1 shots/match	9.95 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

weak

Monza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Monza

1Draws

1Inter

19 Aug 2023Inter — Monza · Serie A2–0

15 Apr 2023Inter — Monza · Serie A0–1

7 Jan 2023Monza — Inter · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Monza favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Inter in 11 · 2 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲2.45 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.5 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/20▲2.23 xG/match

1.57 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.8 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲16.2 shots/match

15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲9.95 shots/match

3.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲5.4 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/20▲2.8 shots/match

53.6%Possessionseason · 20/20●55.8%

4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/20●5.7 corners/match

4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲3.45 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲60%

65%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monza72.5

Inter77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monza40.8

Inter94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monza25

Inter94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monza27.5

Inter77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monza32.5

Inter22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monza57.5

Inter87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monza45

Inter73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Monza20 matchesInter20 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲2.45 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲0.5 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲2.23 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots20/20▲16.2 shots/match

3.65 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲5.4 shots/match

53.6%Possession20/20●55.8%

4.95 corners/matchCorners20/20●5.7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Monza10 matchesInter10 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match

1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.4 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.01 xG/match

13.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match

55.2%●Possession10/1054.7%

5.7 corners/match●Corners10/103.9 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.34 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

Monza's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match