PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Lazio 1–0 Lecce · Serie A

Lazio

DLWWW
1–0Historical match

Lecce

DWLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lazio won 1–0.

Shots
811
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.881.11
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lazio beat Lecce 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lazio – Lecce): shots 8–11, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.88–1.11, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible away split

moderate

Lecce's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lazio have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.2% ●PossessionLazio · Lecce44.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLazioLecceBaseline
Possession53.2%44.5%51.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots11 shotsLazio 8 shots, Lecce 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsLazio 2 shots, Lecce 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.88 xG1.11 xGLazio 0.88 xG, Lecce 1.11 xG
  • Possession53%47%Lazio 53%, Lecce 47%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersLazio 2 corners, Lecce 5 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls12 foulsLazio 14 fouls, Lecce 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rémi Oudin · Lecce · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro · Lazio · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFederico Baschirotto · Lecce · 7′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPatric · Lazio · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 12′ · 0.08 xG · on targetGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 13′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFederico Baschirotto · Lecce · 42′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kaba · Lecce · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMatías Vecino · Lazio · 86′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kaba · Lecce · 33′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 54′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMarin Pongračić · Lecce · 34′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 58′ · 0.36 xG · goalNikola Krstović · Lecce · 67′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lazio: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.85 xG. Lecce: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Felipe Anderson · Lazio · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lazio 0.85 xG · Lecce 1.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Lazio
1Draws
2Lecce
Lecce — Lazio · Serie A2–1
Lazio — Lecce · Serie A2–2
Lecce — Lazio · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lazio favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Lecce in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lazio20 matchesLecce20 matches
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/201 goal/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed20/201.3 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/201.02 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots20/20▲ 12.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲ 3.85 shots/match
53.2% ●Possession20/2044.5%
5.2 corners/match ●Corners20/203.95 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLazioLecce
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headLazio — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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