Serie A · 2023Sun, 11 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

WWWDW

1–0Full-time recap

Napoli

DLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Milan	Napoli
Shots	10 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.9 xG/match▲	0.67 xG/match
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	1 corners/match	2 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Milan: 10 shots, 6 on target, 0.89 xG. Napoli: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 0.89 xG · Napoli 0.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.39 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.39 goals/match	1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Napoli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsMilan · Napoli16.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Napoli	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	16.5 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	14 shots/match	10.2 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Napoli have a visible away split

moderate

Napoli's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season16.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	16.5 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Milan

2Draws

1Napoli

29 Oct 2023Napoli — Milan · Serie A2–2

18 Apr 2023Napoli — Milan · UEFA Champions League1–1

12 Apr 2023Milan — Napoli · UEFA Champions League1–0

2 Apr 2023Napoli — Milan · Serie A0–4

18 Sept 2022Milan — Napoli · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Napoli in 5 · 5 too close

1.96 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/231.39 goals/match

1.13 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/231.17 goals/match

1.62 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/231.62 xG/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/23▲1.05 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/23▲16.5 shots/match

14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/23▲10.2 shots/match

5.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/235.13 shots/match

4.04 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/23▲3.39 shots/match

55.5%Possessionseason · 24/23●60%

4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/23●6.13 corners/match

4.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/23▲3.52 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2310.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2326%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2361%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan82.5

Napoli97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan84.2

Napoli82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan49.2

Napoli74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan42.5

Napoli62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan17.5

Napoli12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan27.5

Napoli97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan51.2

Napoli73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan24 matchesNapoli23 matches

1.96 goals/match▲Goals scored24/231.39 goals/match

1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed24/231.17 goals/match

1.62 xG/matchExpected goals24/231.62 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots24/23▲16.5 shots/match

5.08 shots/matchShots on target24/235.13 shots/match

55.5%Possession24/23●60%

4.33 corners/matchCorners24/23●6.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls24/2310.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan12 matchesNapoli12 matches

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.33 goals/match

0.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.39 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShots12/1213.3 shots/match

4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.33 shots/match

51.5%Possession12/12●58%

4.5 corners/matchCorners12/12●4.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.24 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Feb 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4