Serie A · 2023Wed, 14 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bologna

DLDWW

2–0Full-time recap

Fiorentina

LDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bologna	Fiorentina
Shots	18 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.15 xG/match▲	0.88 xG/match
Possession	58%●	42%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bologna: 18 shots, 7 on target, 2.19 xG. Fiorentina: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bologna 2.19 xG · Fiorentina 0.89 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bologna, Fiorentina. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.46 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.46 goals/match	1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bologna, Fiorentina.

3.17 days▲Rest daysBologna · Fiorentina3.27 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Bologna	Fiorentina	Baseline
Rest days	3.17 days	3.27 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Bologna

0Draws

3Fiorentina

12 Nov 2023Fiorentina — Bologna · Serie A2–1

5 Feb 2023Fiorentina — Bologna · Serie A1–2

11 Sept 2022Bologna — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1

13 Mar 2022Fiorentina — Bologna · Serie A1–0

5 Dec 2021Bologna — Fiorentina · Serie A2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 2 · 6 too close

1.46 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/241.5 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.17 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/241.27 xG/match

0.99 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.33 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲13.2 shots/match

11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/2410.7 shots/match

4.46 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/244.46 shots/match

3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/244.21 shots/match

57.8%●Possessionseason · 24/2457.4%

3.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●4.75 corners/match

4.42 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲3.29 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2412.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2425%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2467%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna92.5

Fiorentina87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna62.5

Fiorentina69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna80

Fiorentina61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna17.5

Fiorentina32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna42.5

Fiorentina77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna7.5

Fiorentina47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna42.5

Fiorentina64.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bologna24 matchesFiorentina24 matches

1.46 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.5 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.17 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals24/241.27 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots24/24▲13.2 shots/match

4.46 shots/matchShots on target24/244.46 shots/match

57.8%●Possession24/2457.4%

3.79 corners/matchCorners24/24●4.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls24/2412.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bologna13 matchesFiorentina12 matches

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored13/121.17 goals/match

0.54 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/121.33 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals13/121.21 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1211.8 shots/match

4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/124.08 shots/match

58.9%●Possession13/1255.2%

3.92 corners/matchCorners13/12●5.08 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1212.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.27 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Feb 2024, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4