PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Fiorentina 2–2 Roma · Serie A

2–2Historical match

Roma

WLWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina and Roma drew 2–2.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
2.130.6
Possession
33%67%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina and Roma drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Fiorentina – Roma): shots 15–10, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 2.13–0.6, possession 33%–67%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.93 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Roma show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Roma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsFiorentina · Roma11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaRomaBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsFiorentina 15 shots, Roma 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsFiorentina 5 shots, Roma 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.13 xG0.6 xGFiorentina 2.13 xG, Roma 0.6 xG
  • Possession33%67%Fiorentina 33%, Roma 67%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersFiorentina 8 corners, Roma 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls15 foulsFiorentina 10 fouls, Roma 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Giacomo Bonaventura · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedAngeliño · Roma · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHoussem Aouar · Roma · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 40′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · Roma · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 4′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNikola Milenković · Fiorentina · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Baldanzi · Roma · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Bonaventura · Fiorentina · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 18′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDiego Llorente · Roma · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 35′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 38′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 50′ · 0.16 xG · on targetHoussem Aouar · Roma · 58′ · 0.17 xG · goalLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 18′ · 0.21 xG · goalRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 69′ · 0.46 xG · goalCristiano Biraghi · Fiorentina · 80′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.18 xG. Roma: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Luca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 18′Rolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 69′Houssem Aouar · Roma · 58′Diego Llorente · Roma · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 2.18 xG · Roma 0.62 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fiorentina
1Draws
2Roma
Roma — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Fiorentina — Roma · Serie A2–1
Roma — Fiorentina · Serie A2–0
Fiorentina — Roma · Serie A2–0
Roma — Fiorentina · Serie A3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fiorentina favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Roma in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fiorentina28 matchesRoma28 matches
1.46 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 1.93 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.25 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 1.41 xG/match
13.5 shots/match ▲Shots28/2811.9 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/284.04 shots/match
56.8% ●Possession28/2854.1%
5.11 corners/match ●Corners28/284.18 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFiorentinaRoma
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headFiorentina — Roma
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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