PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina · Serie A

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina won 2–3.

Shots
128
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.771.24
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina beat Atalanta 3–2. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Fiorentina): shots 12–8, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.77–1.24, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.61 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.53 corners/match ●CornersAtalanta · Fiorentina5.24 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaFiorentinaBaseline
Corners5.53 corners/match5.24 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots8 shotsAtalanta 12 shots, Fiorentina 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsAtalanta 3 shots, Fiorentina 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.77 xG1.24 xGAtalanta 1.77 xG, Fiorentina 1.24 xG
  • Possession54%46%Atalanta 54%, Fiorentina 46%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersAtalanta 4 corners, Fiorentina 4 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls9 foulsAtalanta 5 fouls, Fiorentina 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolás González · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHans Hateboer · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 72′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolás González · Fiorentina · 19′ · 0.04 xG · goalGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 32′ · 0.04 xG · goalLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Ruggeri · Atalanta · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 6′ · 0.07 xG · goalTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 69′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIsak Hien · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 74′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlfred Duncan · Fiorentina · 48′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.31 xG · on targetAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 64′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 12′ · 0.49 xG · goalAndrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.70 xG. Fiorentina: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 12′Giorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 32′Andrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 6′Nicolás González · Fiorentina · 19′Andrea Belotti · Fiorentina · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.70 xG · Fiorentina 1.24 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atalanta
1Draws
3Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A3–2
Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A1–1
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0
Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A1–0
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta38 matchesFiorentina38 matches
1.89 goals/match ▲Goals scored38/381.61 goals/match
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals allowed38/381.21 goals/match
1.55 xG/match ▲Expected goals38/381.39 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots38/3813.8 shots/match
5.45 shots/match ▲Shots on target38/384.79 shots/match
51.3%Possession38/38● 57.7%
5.53 corners/match ●Corners38/385.24 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls38/3812.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headAtalanta — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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