Serie A · 2024Mon, 30 Sept 2024, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Parma

DWLLD

2–3Full-time recap

Cagliari

DDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Parma	Cagliari
Shots	18 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.38 xG/match	2.38 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	5 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Parma: 18 shots, 4 on target, 2.38 xG. Cagliari: 12 shots, 4 on target, 2.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 2.38 xG · Cagliari 2.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsParma · Cagliari16.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Parma	Cagliari	Baseline
Shots	14.7 shots/match	16.2 shots/match	14.2 shots/match
Shots against	17.5 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.5 corners/matchCornersParma · Cagliari●6.67 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Parma	Cagliari	Baseline
Corners	5.5 corners/match	6.67 corners/match	4.5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	0.67 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 7 · 2 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.67 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.67 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.56 xG/match

1.91 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.55 xG/match

14.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲16.2 shots/match

17.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲14.3 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.67 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲4 shots/match

49%Possessionseason · 6/6●51.2%

5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/6●6.67 corners/match

5.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.83 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.83 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/615.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲17%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/633%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma37.5

Cagliari47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma67.5

Cagliari45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma9.2

Cagliari45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma82.5

Cagliari92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma7.5

Cagliari92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma70

Cagliari92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma53.1

Cagliari76.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Parma6 matchesCagliari6 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.67 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.56 xG/match

14.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲16.2 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match

49%Possession6/6●51.2%

5.5 corners/matchCorners6/6●6.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.83 fouls/matchFouls6/615.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Parma4 matchesCagliari2 matches

1.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/2—

2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/2—

1.68 xG/matchExpected goals4/2—

12.5 shots/matchShots4/2—

4.5 shots/matchShots on target4/2—

46.5%Possession4/2—

4.25 corners/matchCorners4/2—

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 30 Sept 2024, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4