Serie A · 2024Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Monza

LDDLL

1–1Full-time recap

Roma

LDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Monza	Roma
Shots	3 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.12 xG/match▲	1.07 xG/match
Possession	34%	66%●
Corners	1 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	16 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Monza: 3 shots, 3 on target, 1.10 xG. Roma: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 1.10 xG · Roma 1.05 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.71 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monza show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

5.43 shots/match▲ShotsMonza · Roma16.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Monza	Roma	Baseline
Shots	5.43 shots/match	16.9 shots/match	14.2 shots/match
Shots against	13.9 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Roma have a visible away split

weak

Roma's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season16.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	16.9 shots/match	14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monza

1Draws

3Roma

2 Mar 2024Monza — Roma · Serie A1–4

22 Oct 2023Roma — Monza · Serie A1–0

3 May 2023Monza — Roma · Serie A1–1

30 Aug 2022Roma — Monza · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Monza favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Roma in 9 · 2 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.14 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.71 goals/match

0.47 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.47 xG/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/71.31 xG/match

5.43 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲16.9 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲12.1 shots/match

2.14 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.86 shots/match

3.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/73.86 shots/match

47.3%Possessionseason · 7/7●61.1%

2.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●4.43 corners/match

4.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.57 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monza37.5

Roma87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monza6.7

Roma70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monza62.5

Roma70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monza2.5

Roma62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monza77.5

Roma25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monza2.5

Roma40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monza21.2

Roma59.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Monza7 matchesRoma7 matches

0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.14 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match

0.47 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.47 xG/match

5.43 shots/matchShots7/7▲16.9 shots/match

2.14 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.86 shots/match

47.3%Possession7/7●61.1%

2.57 corners/matchCorners7/7●4.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.6 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Monza4 matchesRoma4 matches

0.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.5 goals/match

0.59 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.13 xG/match

5.75 shots/matchShots4/4▲13.3 shots/match

2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲3.5 shots/match

46.5%Possession4/4●56%

3 corners/matchCorners4/4●3.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4