PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Monza 1–1 Roma · Serie A

Monza

LDDLL
1–1Historical match

Roma

LDDWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Monza and Roma drew 1–1.

Shots
315
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.121.07
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Monza and Roma drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Monza – Roma): shots 3–15, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.12–1.07, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.71 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monza show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

5.43 shots/match ▲ShotsMonza · Roma16.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonzaRomaBaseline
Shots5.43 shots/match16.9 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against13.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Roma have a visible away split

weak

Roma's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match16.9 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots3 shots15 shotsMonza 3 shots, Roma 15 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsMonza 3 shots, Roma 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.12 xG1.07 xGMonza 1.12 xG, Roma 1.07 xG
  • Possession34%66%Monza 34%, Roma 66%
  • Corners1 corner3 cornersMonza 1 corner, Roma 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls13 foulsMonza 16 fouls, Roma 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Danilo D'Ambrosio · Monza · 81′ · 0.01 xG · on targetArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZeki Çelik · Roma · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAngeliño · Roma · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedManu Koné · Roma · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedManu Koné · Roma · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedManu Koné · Roma · 25′ · 0.04 xG · on targetManu Koné · Roma · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNiccolò Pisilli · Roma · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Baldanzi · Roma · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedManu Koné · Roma · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 58′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 56′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 23′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Maldini · Monza · 17′ · 0.30 xG · on targetArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 61′ · 0.31 xG · goalDany Mota · Monza · 70′ · 0.79 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monza: 3 shots, 3 on target, 1.10 xG. Roma: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Dany Mota · Monza · 70′Artem Dovbyk · Roma · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 1.10 xG · Roma 1.05 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Monza
1Draws
3Roma
Monza — Roma · Serie A1–4
Roma — Monza · Serie A1–0
Monza — Roma · Serie A1–1
Roma — Monza · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Monza favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Roma in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Monza7 matchesRoma7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 1.14 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.71 goals/match
0.47 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 1.47 xG/match
5.43 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 16.9 shots/match
2.14 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 4.86 shots/match
47.3%Possession7/7● 61.1%
2.57 corners/matchCorners7/7● 4.43 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMonzaRoma
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headMonza — Roma
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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