Serie A · 2024Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fiorentina

DDLWD

2–1Full-time recap

Milan

LDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fiorentina	Milan
Shots	12 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.47 xG/match	2.67 xG/match▲
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	0 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	21 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fiorentina: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.51 xG. Milan: 16 shots, 8 on target, 2.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.51 xG · Milan 2.76 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.29 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Fiorentina

0Draws

4Milan

30 Mar 2024Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A1–2

25 Nov 2023Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

4 Mar 2023Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A2–1

13 Nov 2022Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1

1 May 2022Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 9 · 3 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.14 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.29 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.95 xG/match

1.21 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.1 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲16 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲10 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲6.43 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲4 shots/match

54.6%Possessionseason · 7/7●56.9%

4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●6.29 corners/match

4.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.43 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5

Milan77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina55

Milan89.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina53.3

Milan71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina37.5

Milan67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina42.5

Milan7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina50

Milan87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina53.8

Milan68.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina7 matchesMilan7 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.29 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.95 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲16 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲6.43 shots/match

54.6%Possession7/7●56.9%

4.57 corners/matchCorners7/7●6.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls7/710.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina4 matchesMilan4 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/41.5 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match

1.8 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.9 xG/match

14.5 shots/matchShots4/414.8 shots/match

5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6.25 shots/match

52.3%Possession4/4●55.8%

4.25 corners/matchCorners4/4●6.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4