PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Parma 1–3 Atalanta · Serie A

Parma

DDDLW
1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atalanta won 1–3.

Shots
915
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
0.752.75
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta beat Parma 3–1. Recorded in this match (Parma – Atalanta): shots 9–15, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.75–2.75, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.62 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsParma · Atalanta15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParmaAtalantaBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match15.5 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against15.9 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.7%PossessionParma · Atalanta● 56.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParmaAtalantaBaseline
Possession45.7%56.4%48.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots15 shotsParma 9 shots, Atalanta 15 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsParma 3 shots, Atalanta 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.75 xG2.75 xGParma 0.75 xG, Atalanta 2.75 xG
  • Possession45%55%Parma 45%, Atalanta 55%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersParma 2 corners, Atalanta 5 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls8 foulsParma 6 fouls, Atalanta 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nahuel Estévez · Parma · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmanuele Valeri · Parma · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnge-Yoan Bonny · Parma · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · Parma · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmanuele Valeri · Parma · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetValentin Mihăilă · Parma · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaoul Bellanova · Atalanta · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWoyo Coulibaly · Parma · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 41′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIsak Hien · Atalanta · 43′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMarco Brescianini · Atalanta · 88′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 16′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 33′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Ruggeri · Atalanta · 42′ · 0.18 xG · on targetAnge-Yoan Bonny · Parma · 45′ · 0.23 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 75′ · 0.23 xG · goalMatteo Cancellieri · Parma · 49′ · 0.37 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 4′ · 0.50 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 19′ · 0.50 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Parma: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.74 xG. Atalanta: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Matteo Cancellieri · Parma · 49′Mateo Retegui · Atalanta · 4′Éderson · Atalanta · 39′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 0.74 xG · Atalanta 2.84 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Parma favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Atalanta in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Parma13 matchesAtalanta13 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 2.62 goals/match
1.62 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.94 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 15.5 shots/match
3.85 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 5.85 shots/match
45.7%Possession13/13● 56.4%
5.31 corners/match ●Corners13/134.85 corners/match
9.46 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Nov 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParmaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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