PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fiorentina 1–0 Cagliari · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina won 1–0.

Shots
88
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
0.320.8
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina beat Cagliari 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fiorentina – Cagliari): shots 8–8, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 0.32–0.8, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots8 shotsFiorentina 8 shots, Cagliari 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotFiorentina 3 shots, Cagliari 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.32 xG0.8 xGFiorentina 0.32 xG, Cagliari 0.8 xG
  • Possession49%51%Fiorentina 49%, Cagliari 51%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersFiorentina 6 corners, Cagliari 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls20 foulsFiorentina 9 fouls, Cagliari 20 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Dodô · Fiorentina · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastiano Luperto · Cagliari · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYacine Adli · Fiorentina · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Fiorentina · 47′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 6′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYacine Adli · Fiorentina · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichel Adopo · Cagliari · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDodô · Fiorentina · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdam Obert · Cagliari · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanilo Cataldi · Fiorentina · 24′ · 0.10 xG · goalGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 63′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Makoumbou · Cagliari · 11′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 11′ · 0.27 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.34 xG. Cagliari: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Danilo Cataldi · Fiorentina · 24′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 0.34 xG · Cagliari 0.83 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Fiorentina
1Draws
0Cagliari
Cagliari — Fiorentina · Serie A2–3
Fiorentina — Cagliari · Serie A3–0
Cagliari — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Fiorentina — Cagliari · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fiorentina favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fiorentina14 matchesCagliari15 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/151 goal/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/151.67 goals/match
1.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/151.4 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots14/1513.7 shots/match
5.36 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/153.33 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession14/1547.2%
4.71 corners/matchCorners14/15● 6.07 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1513.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFiorentinaCagliari
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headFiorentina — Cagliari
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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