PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Monza 2–1 Fiorentina · Serie A

Monza

LLLLL
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Monza won 2–1.

Shots
1011
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.671.36
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Monza beat Fiorentina 2–1. Recorded in this match (Monza – Fiorentina): shots 10–11, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.67–1.36, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.68 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monza show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.3 shots/match ▲ShotsMonza · Fiorentina13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonzaFiorentinaBaseline
Shots9.3 shots/match13 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Monza have a visible home split

moderate

Monza's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match9.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots11 shotsMonza 10 shots, Fiorentina 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsMonza 3 shots, Fiorentina 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.67 xG1.36 xGMonza 0.67 xG, Fiorentina 1.36 xG
  • Possession34%66%Monza 34%, Fiorentina 66%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersMonza 2 corners, Fiorentina 4 corners
  • Fouls26 fouls9 foulsMonza 26 fouls, Fiorentina 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Moise Kean · Fiorentina · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYacine Adli · Fiorentina · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWarren Bondo · Monza · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Ciurria · Monza · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWarren Bondo · Monza · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDodô · Fiorentina · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Pereira · Monza · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kouamé · Fiorentina · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Fiorentina · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Ciurria · Monza · 44′ · 0.05 xG · goalDaniel Maldini · Monza · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Maldini · Monza · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Maldini · Monza · 63′ · 0.06 xG · goalRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 53′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Monza · 85′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJonathan Ikoné · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Ciurria · Monza · 43′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 74′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monza: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.65 xG. Fiorentina: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Patrick Ciurria · Monza · 44′Daniel Maldini · Monza · 63′Lucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 0.65 xG · Fiorentina 1.40 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Monza
2Draws
2Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Monza · Serie A2–2
Fiorentina — Monza · Serie A2–1
Monza — Fiorentina · Serie A0–1
Monza — Fiorentina · Serie A3–2
Fiorentina — Monza · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Monza favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Monza20 matchesFiorentina19 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored20/19▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed20/19▲ 1.05 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals20/19▲ 1.44 xG/match
9.3 shots/matchShots20/19▲ 13 shots/match
2.75 shots/matchShots on target20/19▲ 4.74 shots/match
48%Possession20/19● 52.7%
3.7 corners/matchCorners20/19● 4.68 corners/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls20/1911.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 13 Jan 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMonzaFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headMonza — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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