PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Torino

WLDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaTorino
Shots20 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.68 xG/match▲0.4 xG/match
Possession54%●46%
Corners9 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Michael Folorunsho · Fiorentina · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Fiorentina · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Fiorentina · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdam Masina · Torino · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdrien Tameze · Torino · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYann Karamoh · Torino · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 47′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYacine Adli · Fiorentina · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYacine Adli · Fiorentina · 83′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMichael Folorunsho · Fiorentina · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 15′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAndrea Colpani · Fiorentina · 38′ · 0.10 xG · on targetGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 70′ · 0.10 xG · goalMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 35′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlieu Njie · Torino · 69′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedPietro Comuzzo · Fiorentina · 28′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 38′ · 0.35 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.55 xG. Torino: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Moise Kean · Fiorentina · 38′Gvidas Gineitis · Torino · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.55 xG · Torino 0.46 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Torino's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Torino show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Torino's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsFiorentina · Torino9.71 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaTorinoBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match9.71 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match14.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fiorentina
2Draws
1Torino
Torino — Fiorentina · Serie A0–1
Torino — Fiorentina · Serie A0–0
Fiorentina — Torino · Serie A1–0
Torino — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Fiorentina — Torino · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Torino in 0 · 2 too close

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/211 goals/match
1.05 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/211.24 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/210.92 xG/match
0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/211.32 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/219.71 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2114.5 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/213.33 shots/match
3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/215 shots/match
52.8%●Possessionseason · 20/2148.3%
4.9 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/214.19 corners/match
3.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/215.48 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2112.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2129%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2162%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina52.5
Torino47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina65.8
Torino20.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina66.7
Torino39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina52.5
Torino7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina22.5
Torino57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina62.5
Torino32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina51.2
Torino31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina20 matchesTorino21 matches
1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored20/211 goals/match
1.05 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/211.24 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals20/210.92 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shots20/219.71 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target20/213.33 shots/match
52.8%●Possession20/2148.3%
4.9 corners/match●Corners20/214.19 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls20/2112.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina10 matchesTorino11 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/111.27 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.45 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals10/110.96 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1110.1 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/113.73 shots/match
51.1%●Possession10/1148.1%
6 corners/match●Corners10/114.09 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1111.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.66 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.77 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples20 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaTorino
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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