PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Lazio 1–2 Fiorentina · Serie A

Lazio

WDLDW
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina won 1–2.

Shots
227
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.410.73
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina beat Lazio 2–1. Recorded in this match (Lazio – Fiorentina): shots 22–7, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.41–0.73, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.73 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots7 shotsLazio 22 shots, Fiorentina 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsLazio 3 shots, Fiorentina 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.41 xG0.73 xGLazio 1.41 xG, Fiorentina 0.73 xG
  • Possession70%30%Lazio 70%, Fiorentina 30%
  • Corners14 corners2 cornersLazio 14 corners, Fiorentina 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsLazio 9 fouls, Fiorentina 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Adam Marušić · Lazio · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuca Pellegrini · Lazio · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFisayo Dele-Bashiru · Lazio · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro · Lazio · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdam Marušić · Lazio · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMattéo Guendouzi · Lazio · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPedro · Lazio · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdam Marušić · Lazio · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBoulaye Dia · Lazio · 67′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPedro · Lazio · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichael Folorunsho · Fiorentina · 15′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPedro · Lazio · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdam Marušić · Lazio · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Romagnoli · Lazio · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBoulaye Dia · Lazio · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYacine Adli · Fiorentina · 11′ · 0.10 xG · goalAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 34′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 68′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 3′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAdam Marušić · Lazio · 90′ · 0.34 xG · goalLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 17′ · 0.38 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lazio: 22 shots, 3 on target, 1.42 xG. Fiorentina: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Adam Marušić · Lazio · 90′Yacine Adli · Fiorentina · 11′Lucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 17′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lazio 1.42 xG · Fiorentina 0.73 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lazio
1Draws
2Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Lazio · Serie A2–1
Fiorentina — Lazio · Serie A2–1
Lazio — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0
Lazio — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Fiorentina — Lazio · Serie A0–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lazio favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lazio22 matchesFiorentina21 matches
1.73 goals/matchGoals scored22/211.67 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed22/21▲ 1.05 goals/match
1.55 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/211.41 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots22/2113 shots/match
5.09 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/214.71 shots/match
54.7% ●Possession22/2151.7%
6.09 corners/match ●Corners22/214.76 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls22/2111.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLazioFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headLazio — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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