PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Roma 1–0 Cagliari · Serie A

Roma

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1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Roma won 1–0.

Shots
1311
Shots on target
15
Expected goals
1.560.79
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Roma beat Cagliari 1–0. Recorded in this match (Roma – Cagliari): shots 13–11, shots on target 1–5, expected goals 1.56–0.79, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.97 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.36 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.36 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Roma show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Roma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsRoma · Cagliari11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRomaCagliariBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots11 shotsRoma 13 shots, Cagliari 11 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot5 shotsRoma 1 shot, Cagliari 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.56 xG0.79 xGRoma 1.56 xG, Cagliari 0.79 xG
  • Possession61%39%Roma 61%, Cagliari 39%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersRoma 8 corners, Cagliari 3 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls12 foulsRoma 4 fouls, Cagliari 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Angeliño · Roma · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Paredes · Roma · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 34′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatías Soulé · Roma · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Paredes · Roma · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatías Soulé · Roma · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Mancini · Roma · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 68′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKingstone Mutandwa · Cagliari · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 21′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 43′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedManu Koné · Roma · 17′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNadir Zortea · Cagliari · 44′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedYerry Mina · Cagliari · 71′ · 0.16 xG · on targetRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 52′ · 0.19 xG · on targetArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 61′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 62′ · 0.73 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 13 shots, 1 on target, 1.60 xG. Cagliari: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Artem Dovbyk · Roma · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 1.60 xG · Cagliari 0.80 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Roma
1Draws
0Cagliari
Cagliari — Roma · Serie A0–0
Roma — Cagliari · Serie A4–0
Cagliari — Roma · Serie A1–4
Roma — Cagliari · Serie A1–0
Cagliari — Roma · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Roma favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Roma29 matchesCagliari29 matches
1.52 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/290.97 goals/match
1.03 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/291.52 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals29/291.18 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots29/2911.8 shots/match
4.62 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/293.34 shots/match
55.9% ●Possession29/2945.3%
4.45 corners/matchCorners29/29● 4.97 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls29/2913.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRomaCagliari
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headRoma — Cagliari
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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