Serie A · 2024Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Napoli

DLDWD

2–1Full-time recap

Milan

LLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Napoli	Milan
Shots	8 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.96 xG/match	2.69 xG/match▲
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	2 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Napoli: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.97 xG. Milan: 17 shots, 4 on target, 2.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 0.97 xG · Milan 2.68 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.73 corners/matchCornersNapoli · Milan●5.93 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Napoli	Milan	Baseline
Corners	5.73 corners/match	5.93 corners/match	4.48 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

weak

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Napoli have a visible home split

moderate

Napoli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.3 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Napoli

2Draws

2Milan

29 Oct 2024Milan — Napoli · Serie A0–2

11 Feb 2024Milan — Napoli · Serie A1–0

29 Oct 2023Napoli — Milan · Serie A2–2

18 Apr 2023Napoli — Milan · UEFA Champions League1–1

12 Apr 2023Milan — Napoli · UEFA Champions League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 3 · 5 too close

1.57 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/301.5 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.17 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/30▲1.72 xG/match

0.85 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/301.1 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲15.1 shots/match

9.87 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3011.2 shots/match

4.03 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲5.37 shots/match

2.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/303.7 shots/match

53.4%Possessionseason · 30/30●55%

5.73 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/30●5.93 corners/match

3.77 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/303.87 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3033%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3087%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli57.5

Milan72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli61.7

Milan80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli94.2

Milan65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli52.5

Milan97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli12.5

Milan17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli82.5

Milan92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli51.2

Milan72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Napoli30 matchesMilan30 matches

1.57 goals/matchGoals scored30/301.5 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.17 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲1.72 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShots30/30▲15.1 shots/match

4.03 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲5.37 shots/match

53.4%Possession30/30●55%

5.73 corners/matchCorners30/30●5.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Napoli15 matchesMilan15 matches

1.53 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.47 goals/match

0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.53 goals/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲1.84 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1514.5 shots/match

4.67 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.67 shots/match

55.1%●Possession15/1554.9%

7.13 corners/match●Corners15/155.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4