Serie A · 2024Sun, 18 May 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Monza

LLLLW

1–3Full-time recap

Empoli

LDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Monza	Empoli
Shots	12 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.15 xG/match	1.27 xG/match▲
Possession	68%●	32%
Corners	2 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	8 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Empoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Monza's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Empoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Empoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	0.86 goals/match	1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monza have a visible home split

moderate

Monza's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season8.92 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.5 shots/match	8.92 shots/match	11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monza have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5%●PossessionMonza · Empoli40.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Monza	Empoli	Baseline
Possession	48.5%	40.5%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Monza

1Draws

2Empoli

17 Aug 2024Empoli — Monza · Serie A0–0

21 Jan 2024Empoli — Monza · Serie A3–0

26 Aug 2023Monza — Empoli · Serie A2–0

4 Mar 2023Monza — Empoli · Serie A2–1

15 Oct 2022Empoli — Monza · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Monza favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Empoli in 7 · 6 too close

0.76 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/37▲0.86 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/37▲1.54 goals/match

0.83 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/370.85 xG/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 37/37▲1.33 xG/match

8.92 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/37▲9.59 shots/match

14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/37▲13.8 shots/match

2.73 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/372.86 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/37▲4.32 shots/match

48.5%●Possessionseason · 37/3740.5%

3.51 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/37●4.24 corners/match

5.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/375.22 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3715.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲16%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monza47.5

Empoli7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monza5.8

Empoli13.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monza5.8

Empoli23.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monza2.5

Empoli37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monza77.5

Empoli97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monza2.5

Empoli32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monza22.5

Empoli37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Monza37 matchesEmpoli37 matches

0.76 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲0.86 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲1.54 goals/match

0.83 xG/matchExpected goals37/370.85 xG/match

8.92 shots/matchShots37/37▲9.59 shots/match

2.73 shots/matchShots on target37/372.86 shots/match

48.5%●Possession37/3740.5%

3.51 corners/matchCorners37/37●4.24 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls37/3715.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Monza19 matchesEmpoli19 matches

0.68 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.21 goals/match

1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.74 goals/match

0.88 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.08 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShots19/1910.3 shots/match

2.95 shots/matchShots on target19/193.05 shots/match

49.9%●Possession19/1939.5%

3.74 corners/matchCorners19/19●4.53 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls19/1916.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 May 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4