Serie A · 2024Sun, 18 May 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

DWWWL

3–1Full-time recap

Milan

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Roma	Milan
Shots	15 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.07 xG/match	1.55 xG/match▲
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	4 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Roma: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.09 xG. Milan: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 1.09 xG · Milan 1.42 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Milan's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

Milan's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	14.6 shots/match	11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Roma

1Draws

2Milan

29 Dec 2024Milan — Roma · Serie A1–1

18 Apr 2024Roma — Milan · UEFA Europa League2–1

11 Apr 2024Milan — Roma · UEFA Europa League0–1

14 Jan 2024Milan — Roma · Serie A3–1

1 Sept 2023Roma — Milan · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 4 · 7 too close

1.46 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/37▲1.59 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 37/371.16 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/37▲1.69 xG/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 37/371.11 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/37▲14.6 shots/match

11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/3711.5 shots/match

4.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/37▲5.14 shots/match

4.03 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/373.84 shots/match

53.9%Possessionseason · 37/37●54.1%

4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/37●5.76 corners/match

4.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/374.14 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3711 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/3732%

84%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma57.5

Milan62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma67.5

Milan89.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma62.5

Milan64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma72.5

Milan92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma2.5

Milan17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma52.5

Milan87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma50

Milan72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma37 matchesMilan37 matches

1.46 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲1.59 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed37/371.16 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals37/37▲1.69 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots37/37▲14.6 shots/match

4.65 shots/matchShots on target37/37▲5.14 shots/match

53.9%Possession37/37●54.1%

4.57 corners/matchCorners37/37●5.76 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls37/3711 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma19 matchesMilan19 matches

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.63 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.42 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.76 xG/match

14.5 shots/matchShots19/1914 shots/match

4.84 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲5.37 shots/match

54.7%●Possession19/1954.1%

4.37 corners/matchCorners19/19●5.42 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 May 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4