PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Lecce 1–0 Torino · Serie A

Lecce

LLDLD
1–0Historical match

Torino

LWLDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lecce won 1–0.

Shots
1010
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
0.910.49
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lecce beat Torino 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lecce – Torino): shots 10–10, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 0.91–0.49, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Torino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Torino's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots10 shotsLecce 10 shots, Torino 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsLecce 4 shots, Torino 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.91 xG0.49 xGLecce 0.91 xG, Torino 0.49 xG
  • Possession42%58%Lecce 42%, Torino 58%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersLecce 3 corners, Torino 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 foulsLecce 13 fouls, Torino 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gvidas Gineitis · Torino · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetN'Dri Konan · Lecce · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCesare Casadei · Torino · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTete Morente · Lecce · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 46′ · 0.02 xG · goalNikola Krstović · Lecce · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristiano Biraghi · Torino · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntonino Gallo · Lecce · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCesare Casadei · Torino · 31′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFederico Baschirotto · Lecce · 18′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAli Dembélé · Torino · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAli Dembélé · Torino · 15′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAnte Rebić · Lecce · 69′ · 0.09 xG · on targetÞórir Jóhann Helgason · Lecce · 39′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCesare Casadei · Torino · 70′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 49′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLassana Coulibaly · Lecce · 68′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lecce: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.83 xG. Torino: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Ylber Ramadani · Lecce · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 0.83 xG · Torino 0.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Lecce
1Draws
4Torino
Torino — Lecce · Serie A0–0
Torino — Lecce · Serie A2–0
Lecce — Torino · Serie A0–1
Lecce — Torino · Serie A0–2
Torino — Lecce · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lecce favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Torino in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lecce37 matchesTorino37 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲ 1.05 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲ 1.16 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals37/370.94 xG/match
12 shots/match ▲Shots37/3710.1 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target37/373.41 shots/match
44%Possession37/37● 47.5%
4.35 corners/match ●Corners37/374.22 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls37/3712.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 May 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLecceTorino
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headLecce — Torino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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