PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sun, 18 May 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lecce

LLDLD
1–0Full-time recap

Torino

LWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceTorino
Shots10 shots/match10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals0.91 xG/match▲0.49 xG/match
Possession42%58%●
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gvidas Gineitis · Torino · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetN'Dri Konan · Lecce · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCesare Casadei · Torino · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTete Morente · Lecce · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 46′ · 0.02 xG · goalNikola Krstović · Lecce · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristiano Biraghi · Torino · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntonino Gallo · Lecce · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCesare Casadei · Torino · 31′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFederico Baschirotto · Lecce · 18′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAli Dembélé · Torino · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAli Dembélé · Torino · 15′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAnte Rebić · Lecce · 69′ · 0.09 xG · on targetÞórir Jóhann Helgason · Lecce · 39′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCesare Casadei · Torino · 70′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 49′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLassana Coulibaly · Lecce · 68′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lecce: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.83 xG. Torino: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Ylber Ramadani · Lecce · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 0.83 xG · Torino 0.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Torino's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Torino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Torino's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce
1Draws
4Torino
Torino — Lecce · Serie A0–0
Torino — Lecce · Serie A2–0
Lecce — Torino · Serie A0–1
Lecce — Torino · Serie A0–2
Torino — Lecce · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Torino in 6 · 6 too close

0.7 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/37▲1.05 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/37▲1.16 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/370.94 xG/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 37/37▲1.35 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 37/3710.1 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/3713.9 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/373.41 shots/match
4.81 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/374.76 shots/match
44%Possessionseason · 37/37●47.5%
4.35 corners/match●Cornersseason · 37/374.22 corners/match
5.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/37▲5.22 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3712.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲27%
51%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/37▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce12.5
Torino37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce26.7
Torino31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce17.5
Torino33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce97.5
Torino7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce42.5
Torino52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce37.5
Torino27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce39.4
Torino35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lecce37 matchesTorino37 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲1.05 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲1.16 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals37/370.94 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shots37/3710.1 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target37/373.41 shots/match
44%Possession37/37●47.5%
4.35 corners/match●Corners37/374.22 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls37/3712.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lecce19 matchesTorino19 matches
0.68 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.16 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.42 goals/match
0.99 xG/match▲Expected goals19/190.9 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots19/199.42 shots/match
3.47 shots/matchShots on target19/193.58 shots/match
44.9%Possession19/19●46.1%
5.16 corners/match●Corners19/193.74 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.11 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 May 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceTorino
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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