PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Atlético Madrid 2–1 Almería · La Liga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atlético Madrid won 2–1.

Shots
1319
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
2.171.36
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Madrid beat Almería 2–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Madrid – Almería): shots 13–19, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 2.17–1.36, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Almería's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atlético Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atlético Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAtlético Madrid · Almería13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtlético MadridAlmeríaBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots19 shotsAtlético Madrid 13 shots, Almería 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsAtlético Madrid 4 shots, Almería 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.17 xG1.36 xGAtlético Madrid 2.17 xG, Almería 1.36 xG
  • Possession57%43%Atlético Madrid 57%, Almería 43%
  • Corners3 corners15 cornersAtlético Madrid 3 corners, Almería 15 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsAtlético Madrid 13 fouls, Almería 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ángel Correa · Atlético Madrid · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 31′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLucas Robertone · Almería · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 64′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 79′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLucas Robertone · Almería · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSaúl Ñíguez · Atlético Madrid · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPozo · Almería · 62′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 35′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMemphis Depay · Atlético Madrid · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCésar Montes · Almería · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 53′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJosé María Giménez · Atlético Madrid · 76′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMemphis Depay · Atlético Madrid · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEdgar González · Almería · 40′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedÁngel Correa · Atlético Madrid · 17′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 90′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 62′ · 0.44 xG · goalÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 17′ · 0.52 xG · goalÁngel Correa · Atlético Madrid · 22′ · 0.96 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.14 xG. Almería: 19 shots, 6 on target, 1.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Álvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 17′Ángel Correa · Atlético Madrid · 22′Léo Baptistão · Almería · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 2.14 xG · Almería 1.38 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Madrid
1Draws
0Almería
Atlético Madrid — Almería · La Liga2–1
Almería — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Madrid favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Almería in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid15 matchesAlmería16 matches
2.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/161.06 goals/match
0.93 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/162.44 goals/match
1.85 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/161.43 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots15/1613.3 shots/match
5.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/164.75 shots/match
51.9% ●Possession15/1648.1%
4.4 corners/matchCorners15/16● 5.38 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1612.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MadridAlmería
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headAtlético Madrid — Almería
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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