La Liga · 2023Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Deportivo Alavés

LDDDL

1–0Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

LLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	12 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.61 xG/match	0.64 xG/match▲
Possession	33%	67%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Deportivo Alavés: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.59 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Deportivo Alavés 0.59 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Deportivo Alavés's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.93 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible away split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.93 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.93 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Deportivo Alavés

0Draws

2Rayo Vallecano

15 Sept 2023Rayo Vallecano — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga2–0

16 Apr 2022Deportivo Alavés — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–0

18 Dec 2021Rayo Vallecano — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Deportivo Alavés favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 2 · 4 too close

0.93 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/280.82 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.36 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/281.14 xG/match

1.19 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/281.29 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/2812.1 shots/match

11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/2812.1 shots/match

3.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.29 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.54 shots/match

41.9%Possessionseason · 28/28●49%

5.18 corners/match●Cornersseason · 28/284.21 corners/match

4.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/284.82 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2815.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲32%

61%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2857%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Deportivo Alavés2.5

Rayo Vallecano47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Deportivo Alavés40.8

Rayo Vallecano37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Deportivo Alavés64.2

Rayo Vallecano45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Deportivo Alavés97.5

Rayo Vallecano52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés42.5

Rayo Vallecano77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés77.5

Rayo Vallecano17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Deportivo Alavés55

Rayo Vallecano50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Deportivo Alavés28 matchesRayo Vallecano28 matches

0.93 goals/match▲Goals scored28/280.82 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.36 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals28/281.14 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots28/2812.1 shots/match

3.64 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.29 shots/match

41.9%Possession28/28●49%

5.18 corners/match●Corners28/284.21 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls28/2815.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Deportivo Alavés14 matchesRayo Vallecano15 matches

1.07 goals/match▲Goals scored14/150.73 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲1.07 goals/match

1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals14/151 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots14/159.93 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on target14/153.6 shots/match

42.7%Possession14/15●46.9%

6.21 corners/match●Corners14/152.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls14/1514.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.91 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4