Primeira Liga · 2026Full timeFull-time analysis
20Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCD NacionalEstoril Praia
Shots20 shots 9 shots
Shots on target3 shots5 shots
Expected goals2.08 xG 0.82 xG
Possession59% 41%
Corners7 corners 4 corners
Fouls13 fouls13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Xeka · Estoril Praia · 22′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMarkus Jensen · CD Nacional · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWesley Gasolina · CD Nacional · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · CD Nacional · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · CD Nacional · 68′ · 0.01 xG · goalWesley Gasolina · CD Nacional · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafik Guitane · Estoril Praia · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXeka · Estoril Praia · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZe Vitor · CD Nacional · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Júnior · CD Nacional · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Júnior · CD Nacional · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Júnior · CD Nacional · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPablo Messias Cardozo · CD Nacional · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWesley Gasolina · CD Nacional · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTiago Brito · Estoril Praia · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Lacximicant · Estoril Praia · 27′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLéo Santos · CD Nacional · 19′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndré Lacximicant · Estoril Praia · 26′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMarkus Jensen · CD Nacional · 64′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPablo Messias Cardozo · CD Nacional · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Sierra Arnal · Estoril Praia · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDaniel De la Cruz · CD Nacional · 83′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedStavros Gavriel · CD Nacional · 83′ · 0.19 xG · on targetJoão Carvalho · Estoril Praia · 17′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPablo Messias Cardozo · CD Nacional · 38′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedPablo Messias Cardozo · CD Nacional · 8′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril Praia · 42′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedLéo Santos · CD Nacional · 77′ · 0.34 xG · goalFilipe Soares · CD Nacional · 67′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

CD Nacional: 20 shots, 3 on target, 2.09 xG. Estoril Praia: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ze Vitor · CD Nacional · 68′Léo Santos · CD Nacional · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: CD Nacional 2.09 xG · Estoril Praia 0.80 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

CD Nacional beat Estoril Praia 2–0. Recorded in this match (CD Nacional – Estoril Praia): shots 20–9, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 2.08–0.82, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

Last 5 meetings

0CD Nacional
2Draws
2Estoril Praia
CD NacionalEstoril Praia · Primeira Liga01
Estoril PraiaCD Nacional · Primeira Liga11
CD NacionalEstoril Praia · Primeira Liga22
Estoril PraiaCD Nacional · Primeira Liga10

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Season-opening preview

Current-season evidence is still building.

This competition's new season has only just started, so PitchMath does not yet hold enough completed matches for a current-season grade. The comparison below is last season's recorded data, shown as historical context.

1 / 2 matches toward the first current-season grade

Current season so far

Completed matches in the season being played. Kept separate from the historical block below.

  • CD Nacional2 matches
  • Estoril Praia1 matches

Previous-season context

Recorded season totals from the source competition. Not current form.

Both clubs played the same competition and season, so these values are directly comparable.

CD Nacional

Competition
Primeira Liga
Season
2025/26
Sample
36 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
28 May 2026
  • Goals scored1.11 goals/match
  • Goals allowed1.36 goals/match
  • Expected goals1.18 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.54 xG/match
  • Shots13.1 shots/match
  • Shots allowed14.7 shots/match
  • Shots on target4.31 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed4.36 shots/match
  • Possession47.2%
  • Corners4.42 corners/match
  • Corners allowed6.44 corners/match
  • Cards3.08 cards/match
  • Fouls14.6 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency22%
  • Scoring frequency69%

Estoril Praia

Competition
Primeira Liga
Season
2025/26
Sample
36 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
28 May 2026
  • Goals scored1.58 goals/match
  • Goals allowed1.69 goals/match
  • Expected goals1.23 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.63 xG/match
  • Shots11.8 shots/match
  • Shots allowed12.2 shots/match
  • Shots on target4.03 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed4.39 shots/match
  • Possession53.2%
  • Corners4.42 corners/match
  • Corners allowed5.03 corners/match
  • Cards2.6 cards/match
  • Fouls12.8 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency14%
  • Scoring frequency69%

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade D · UnavailableUnavailableunavailable
Season samples2 / 1home / away teams
Recent samples2 / 1last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4