CD Nacional 2–3 CF Estrela Amadora — Match Stats & Analysis

Primeira Liga · 2026Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC

CD Nacional

DWL

2–3Full-time analysis

CF Estrela Amadora

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

CF Estrela Amadora won 2–3.

Shots: 1014
Shots on target: 54
Expected goals: 0.832.1
Possession: 51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

CF Estrela Amadora beat CD Nacional 3–2. Recorded in this match (CD Nacional – CF Estrela Amadora): shots 10–14, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 0.83–2.1, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CF Estrela Amadora show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

CF Estrela Amadora's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	CD Nacional	CF Estrela Amadora	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	—	11.7 shots/match
Shots against	16.3 shots/match	—	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

Shots10 shots14 shotsCD Nacional 10 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 14 shots
Shots on target5 shots4 shotsCD Nacional 5 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 4 shots
Expected goals0.83 xG2.1 xGCD Nacional 0.83 xG, CF Estrela Amadora 2.1 xG
Possession51%49%CD Nacional 51%, CF Estrela Amadora 49%
Corners4 corners3 cornersCD Nacional 4 corners, CF Estrela Amadora 3 corners
Fouls12 fouls9 foulsCD Nacional 12 fouls, CF Estrela Amadora 9 fouls
Yellow cards2 cards1 cardCD Nacional 2 cards, CF Estrela Amadora 1 card
Passes410 passes390 passesCD Nacional 410 passes, CF Estrela Amadora 390 passes
Pass accuracy82.2%81.8%CD Nacional 82.2%, CF Estrela Amadora 81.8%
Shots inside box4 shots9 shotsCD Nacional 4 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 9 shots
Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksCD Nacional 3 blocks, CF Estrela Amadora 2 blocks
Goalkeeper saves1 save3 savesCD Nacional 1 save, CF Estrela Amadora 3 saves
Offsides1 offside1 offsideCD Nacional 1 offside, CF Estrela Amadora 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

3′Wesley GasolinaGoal · CD Nacional
45′Ze VitorYellow card · CD Nacional
45′Ianis StoicaPenalty goal · CF Estrela Amadora
Half-time
48′Williams KokoloYellow card · CD Nacional
62′Abraham MarcusGoal · CF Estrela Amadora
66′Pablo Messias CardozoGoal · CD Nacional
83′Leandro AntonettiGoal · CF Estrela Amadora
86′Leandro AntonettiYellow card · CF Estrela Amadora
Full time

Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute

40′CD Nacional · 1 player changeMatchoi Djaló
67′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeJoan Jordán
69′CD Nacional · 1 player changeAllen Obando
70′CD Nacional · 1 player changeStavros Gavriel
72′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeBénito
79′CD Nacional · 2 player changesMarkus Jensen · Daniel De la Cruz
90′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeBernardo Schappo

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CD Nacional

1Draws

2CF Estrela Amadora

4 Apr 2026CD Nacional — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga2–0

9 Nov 2025CF Estrela Amadora — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–1

6 Apr 2025CD Nacional — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga0–1

10 Nov 2024CF Estrela Amadora — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited

Season samples4 / 2home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 2last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4