Süper Lig · 2025Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeCaykur Didi StadiumFull-time recap
20Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricÇaykur RizesporKocaelispor
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals1.05 xG/match0.66 xG/match
Possession47%53%
Corners2 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ahmet Oğuz · Kocaelispor · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHabib Keita · Kocaelispor · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMithat Pala · Çaykur Rizespor · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedValentin Mihăilă · Çaykur Rizespor · 8′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBruno Petković · Kocaelispor · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRigoberto Rivas · Kocaelispor · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDarko Churlinov · Kocaelispor · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKarol Linetty · Kocaelispor · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdedire Mebude · Çaykur Rizespor · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDarko Churlinov · Kocaelispor · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedQazim Laci · Çaykur Rizespor · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKarol Linetty · Kocaelispor · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Olawoyin · Çaykur Rizespor · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamet Akaydın · Çaykur Rizespor · 5′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDarko Churlinov · Kocaelispor · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKarol Linetty · Kocaelispor · 33′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHalil Dervişoğlu · Çaykur Rizespor · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamet Akaydın · Çaykur Rizespor · 57′ · 0.07 xG · goalBruno Petković · Kocaelispor · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDarko Churlinov · Kocaelispor · 65′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSerdar Dursun · Kocaelispor · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdedire Mebude · Çaykur Rizespor · 32′ · 0.15 xG · on targetValentin Mihăilă · Çaykur Rizespor · 13′ · 0.21 xG · goalValentin Mihăilă · Çaykur Rizespor · 56′ · 0.29 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Çaykur Rizespor: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.04 xG. Kocaelispor: 13 shots, 1 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Valentin Mihăilă · Çaykur Rizespor · 13′Samet Akaydın · Çaykur Rizespor · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Çaykur Rizespor 1.04 xG · Kocaelispor 0.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Çaykur Rizespor
1Draws
0Kocaelispor
KocaelisporÇaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig11

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Çaykur Rizespor favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Kocaelispor in 6 · 4 too close

1.22 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/230.91 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/231.04 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 23/230.93 xG/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/230.94 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2310.7 shots/match
14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2311.2 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/233.43 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/232.96 shots/match
49.1%Possessionseason · 23/2349.6%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.43 corners/match
4.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/234 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2314.3 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2335%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2361%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Çaykur Rizespor47.2
Kocaelispor52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Çaykur Rizespor41.7
Kocaelispor19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Çaykur Rizespor30.6
Kocaelispor86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Çaykur Rizespor47.2
Kocaelispor8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Çaykur Rizespor63.9
Kocaelispor80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Çaykur Rizespor13.9
Kocaelispor36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Çaykur Rizespor37.5
Kocaelispor37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.99 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots5/511.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/52.8 shots/match
45.8%Possession5/550.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/517.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/100.9 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.05 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots10/1011.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/103.4 shots/match
49.1%Possession10/1052.6%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored23/230.91 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed23/231.04 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals23/230.93 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots23/2310.7 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target23/233.43 shots/match
49.1%Possession23/2349.6%
4 corners/matchCorners23/234.43 corners/match
Cards0/0
13.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2314.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored12/110.73 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/111.45 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals12/110.69 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots12/119.27 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target12/112.64 shots/match
50%Possession12/1149%
3.83 corners/matchCorners12/114.27 corners/match
Cards0/0
14.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1115.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.23 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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