PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2025Atatürk Olympic Stadium

Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Çaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fatih Karagümrük won 2–1.

Shots
1011
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.321.55
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Çaykur Rizespor 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fatih Karagümrük – Çaykur Rizespor): shots 10–11, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.32–1.55, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fatih Karagümrük's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fatih Karagümrük's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots11 shotsFatih Karagümrük 10 shots, Çaykur Rizespor 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsFatih Karagümrük 5 shots, Çaykur Rizespor 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.32 xG1.55 xGFatih Karagümrük 1.32 xG, Çaykur Rizespor 1.55 xG
  • Possession37%63%Fatih Karagümrük 37%, Çaykur Rizespor 63%
  • Corners0 corners3 cornersFatih Karagümrük 0 corners, Çaykur Rizespor 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls21 foulsFatih Karagümrük 15 fouls, Çaykur Rizespor 21 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Qazim Laci · Çaykur Rizespor · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedÇağtay Kurukalıp · Fatih Karagümrük · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDaniele Verde · Fatih Karagümrük · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentin Mihăilă · Çaykur Rizespor · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniele Verde · Fatih Karagümrük · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIbrahim Olawoyin · Çaykur Rizespor · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetShavy Babicka · Fatih Karagümrük · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerginho · Fatih Karagümrük · 2′ · 0.04 xG · on targetValentin Mihăilă · Çaykur Rizespor · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMithat Pala · Çaykur Rizespor · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedShavy Babicka · Fatih Karagümrük · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedQazim Laci · Çaykur Rizespor · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedValentin Mihăilă · Çaykur Rizespor · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedShavy Babicka · Fatih Karagümrük · 6′ · 0.10 xG · on targetShavy Babicka · Fatih Karagümrük · 87′ · 0.12 xG · goalAli Sowe · Çaykur Rizespor · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAli Sowe · Çaykur Rizespor · 83′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedSamet Akaydın · Çaykur Rizespor · 79′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSam Larsson · Fatih Karagümrük · 28′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedAli Sowe · Çaykur Rizespor · 70′ · 0.57 xG · goalSerginho · Fatih Karagümrük · 39′ · 0.69 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fatih Karagümrük: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.34 xG. Çaykur Rizespor: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Serginho · Fatih Karagümrük · 39′Shavy Babicka · Fatih Karagümrük · 87′Ali Sowe · Çaykur Rizespor · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 xG · Çaykur Rizespor 1.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fatih Karagümrük
1Draws
2Çaykur Rizespor
Çaykur Rizespor — Fatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig1–0
Fatih Karagümrük — Çaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig4–0
Çaykur Rizespor — Fatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig1–0
Fatih Karagümrük — Çaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig2–0
Çaykur Rizespor — Fatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fatih Karagümrük favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Çaykur Rizespor in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fatih Karagümrük28 matchesÇaykur Rizespor27 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored28/27▲ 1.22 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed28/27▲ 1.41 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals28/27▲ 1.27 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots28/27▲ 12.4 shots/match
3.36 shots/matchShots on target28/27▲ 3.7 shots/match
45.3%Possession28/27● 49.2%
3.75 corners/matchCorners28/27● 3.93 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2713.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFatih KaragümrükÇaykur Rizespor
CompetitionSüper LigSüper Lig 2025/26
Head-to-headFatih Karagümrük — Çaykur Rizespor
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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