PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2025Atatürk Olympic Stadium

Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Alanyaspor · Süper Lig

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fatih Karagümrük won 2–1.

Shots
811
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.780.74
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Alanyaspor 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fatih Karagümrük – Alanyaspor): shots 8–11, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.78–0.74, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fatih Karagümrük show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fatih Karagümrük's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsFatih Karagümrük · Alanyaspor12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFatih KaragümrükAlanyasporBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fatih Karagümrük's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fatih Karagümrük's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.8 shots/match10.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots11 shotsFatih Karagümrük 8 shots, Alanyaspor 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsFatih Karagümrük 4 shots, Alanyaspor 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG0.74 xGFatih Karagümrük 1.78 xG, Alanyaspor 0.74 xG
  • Possession44%56%Fatih Karagümrük 44%, Alanyaspor 56%
  • Corners0 corners4 cornersFatih Karagümrük 0 corners, Alanyaspor 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls13 foulsFatih Karagümrük 12 fouls, Alanyaspor 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHwang Ui-Jo · Alanyaspor · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMeschak Elia · Alanyaspor · 32′ · 0.02 xG · goalBaris Kalayci · Fatih Karagümrük · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Kaya · Alanyaspor · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFidan Aliti · Alanyaspor · 89′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAhmed Traore · Fatih Karagümrük · 24′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGüven Yalçın · Alanyaspor · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRuan Pereira Duarte · Alanyaspor · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBerkay Özcan · Fatih Karagümrük · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBartuğ Elmaz · Fatih Karagümrük · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSam Larsson · Fatih Karagümrük · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaestro · Alanyaspor · 10′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRicardo Esgaio · Fatih Karagümrük · 63′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFidan Aliti · Alanyaspor · 41′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEnes Keskin · Alanyaspor · 57′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRuan Pereira Duarte · Alanyaspor · 14′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSam Larsson · Fatih Karagümrük · 47′ · 0.64 xG · goalSam Larsson · Fatih Karagümrük · 72′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fatih Karagümrük: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.76 xG. Alanyaspor: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Sam Larsson · Fatih Karagümrük · 47′Sam Larsson · Fatih Karagümrük · 72′Meschak Elia · Alanyaspor · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fatih Karagümrük 1.76 xG · Alanyaspor 0.62 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fatih Karagümrük
3Draws
2Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor — Fatih Karagümrük · Turkish Cup2–2
Alanyaspor — Fatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig2–0
Fatih Karagümrük — Alanyaspor · Süper Lig1–1
Alanyaspor — Fatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig2–1
Alanyaspor — Fatih Karagümrük · Süper Lig2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fatih Karagümrük favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Alanyaspor in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fatih Karagümrük34 matchesAlanyaspor34 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲ 1.21 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 1.21 goals/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals34/341.03 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 12.4 shots/match
3.24 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 4.09 shots/match
45%Possession34/34● 48.1%
3.56 corners/matchCorners34/34● 4.68 corners/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls34/3312.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFatih KaragümrükAlanyaspor
CompetitionSüper LigSüper Lig 2025/26
Head-to-headFatih Karagümrük — Alanyaspor
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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