PitchMath
Championship · 2025Ashton Gate

Bristol City 1–0 Birmingham City · Championship

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bristol City won 1–0.

Shots
513
Shots on target
11
Expected goals
0.270.69
Possession
29%71%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bristol City beat Birmingham City 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bristol City – Birmingham City): shots 5–13, shots on target 1–1, expected goals 0.27–0.69, possession 29%–71%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Birmingham City have a visible away split

moderate

Birmingham City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.67 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.67 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Birmingham City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Birmingham City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bristol City, Birmingham City.

3.79 days ▲Rest daysBristol City · Birmingham City3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBristol CityBirmingham CityBaseline
Rest days3.79 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots13 shotsBristol City 5 shots, Birmingham City 13 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot1 shotBristol City 1 shot, Birmingham City 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.27 xG0.69 xGBristol City 0.27 xG, Birmingham City 0.69 xG
  • Possession29%71%Bristol City 29%, Birmingham City 71%
  • Corners0 corners6 cornersBristol City 0 corners, Birmingham City 6 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls6 foulsBristol City 9 fouls, Birmingham City 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Christoph Klarer · Birmingham City · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNeto Borges · Bristol City · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRob Dickie · Bristol City · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Leonard · Birmingham City · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedScott Twine · Bristol City · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdam Randell · Bristol City · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTommy Doyle · Birmingham City · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Roberts · Birmingham City · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarc Leonard · Birmingham City · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham City · 83′ · 0.18 xG · on targetSinclair Armstrong · Bristol City · 42′ · 0.25 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bristol City: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.35 xG. Birmingham City: 13 shots, 1 on target, 0.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City · 42′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bristol City 0.35 xG · Birmingham City 0.71 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bristol City
1Draws
3Birmingham City
Birmingham City — Bristol City · Championship0–0
Bristol City — Birmingham City · Championship0–2
Bristol City — Birmingham City · Championship4–2
Birmingham City — Bristol City · Championship3–0
Bristol City — Birmingham City · Championship1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bristol City favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Birmingham City in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bristol City12 matchesBirmingham City12 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/120.92 goals/match
0.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.25 goals/match
1.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.35 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots11/1113.7 shots/match
3.45 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/113 shots/match
46.5%Possession11/11● 58.3%
4.82 corners/matchCorners11/11● 5.55 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBristol CityBirmingham City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headBristol City — Birmingham City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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