PitchMath
Championship · 2025Vicarage Road

Watford 1–1 Preston North End · Championship

Watford

LWDDW
1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Watford and Preston North End drew 1–1.

Shots
2410
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.70.98
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Watford and Preston North End drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Watford – Preston North End): shots 24–10, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.7–0.98, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Watford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Watford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Watford, Preston North End.

3.2 days ▲Rest daysWatford · Preston North End3.99 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWatfordPreston North EndBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.99 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Watford have a visible home split

moderate

Watford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots10 shotsWatford 24 shots, Preston North End 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsWatford 5 shots, Preston North End 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.7 xG0.98 xGWatford 1.7 xG, Preston North End 0.98 xG
  • Possession59%41%Watford 59%, Preston North End 41%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersWatford 6 corners, Preston North End 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsWatford 11 fouls, Preston North End 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Othmane Maamma · Watford · 51′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 13′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Doumbia · Watford · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Ngakia · Watford · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNestory Irankunda · Watford · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarc Bola · Watford · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedStefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston North End · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 40′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMamadou Doumbia · Watford · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Doumbia · Watford · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · Watford · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEdo Kayembe · Watford · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 6′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · Watford · 89′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDaniel Jebbison · Preston North End · 61′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAndrew Hughes · Preston North End · 36′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 31′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 6′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Doumbia · Watford · 45′ · 0.29 xG · goalDaniel Jebbison · Preston North End · 22′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Watford: 24 shots, 5 on target, 1.74 xG. Preston North End: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mamadou Doumbia · Watford · 45′Daniel Jebbison · Preston North End · 22′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Watford 1.74 xG · Preston North End 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Watford
2Draws
2Preston North End
Watford — Preston North End · Championship1–2
Preston North End — Watford · Championship3–0
Watford — Preston North End · Championship0–0
Preston North End — Watford · Championship1–5
Watford — Preston North End · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Watford favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Preston North End in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Watford17 matchesPreston North End17 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored17/171.29 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1 goal/match
1.38 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/171.24 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots17/1610.8 shots/match
4.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/163.44 shots/match
51.7% ●Possession17/1644.5%
4.18 corners/match ●Corners17/163.31 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1610 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 25 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWatfordPreston North End
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headWatford — Preston North End
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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