Championship · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeFratton ParkFull-time recap
30Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPortsmouthWest Bromwich Albion
Shots20 shots/match4 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals2.47 xG/match0.14 xG/match
Possession49%51%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Adrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTerry Devlin · Portsmouth · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEbou Adams · Portsmouth · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Imray · West Bromwich Albion · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMillenic Alli · Portsmouth · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedColby Bishop · Portsmouth · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRegan Poole · Portsmouth · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTerry Devlin · Portsmouth · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 16′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTerry Devlin · Portsmouth · 38′ · 0.10 xG · on targetConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 20′ · 0.11 xG · goalConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 2′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedConnor Ogilvie · Portsmouth · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMillenic Alli · Portsmouth · 25′ · 0.22 xG · goalMakenzie Kirk · Portsmouth · 90′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 88′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedEbou Adams · Portsmouth · 49′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Portsmouth: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.45 xG. West Bromwich Albion: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Conor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 20′Millenic Alli · Portsmouth · 25′Ebou Adams · Portsmouth · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Portsmouth 2.45 xG · West Bromwich Albion 0.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Portsmouth's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Portsmouth have a visible home split

strong

Portsmouth's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/matchShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

West Bromwich Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.07 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Portsmouth.

6.12 daysRest daysPortsmouth · West Bromwich Albion7.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPortsmouthWest Bromwich AlbionBaseline
Rest days6.12 days7.79 days
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Portsmouth
1Draws
0West Bromwich Albion
West Bromwich AlbionPortsmouth · Championship11

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Portsmouth favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · West Bromwich Albion in 8 · 4 too close

0.96 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/301.07 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/301.57 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 28/301.19 xG/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 28/301.08 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/3013.5 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/3011 shots/match
3.37 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/304.23 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/303.53 shots/match
49.3%Possessionseason · 27/3051.3%
5.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/305.43 corners/match
5.26 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/303.67 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/3010.2 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/3017%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/3070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Portsmouth43.8
West Bromwich Albion60.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Portsmouth21.5
West Bromwich Albion56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Portsmouth45.1
West Bromwich Albion57.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Portsmouth31.2
West Bromwich Albion60.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Portsmouth27.1
West Bromwich Albion31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 48%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Portsmouth52.1
West Bromwich Albion72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Portsmouth32.3
West Bromwich Albion62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.8 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.92 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots5/511.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/548.2%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.26 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots10/1012.7 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/104.2 shots/match
51.2%Possession10/1049.7%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 30 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored28/301.07 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed28/301.57 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals28/301.19 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots27/3013.5 shots/match
3.37 shots/matchShots on target27/304.23 shots/match
49.3%Possession27/3051.3%
5.11 corners/matchCorners27/305.43 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.1 fouls/matchFouls27/3010.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 16 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored15/160.88 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed15/161.75 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals15/161.04 xG/match
15.2 shots/matchShots14/1611.7 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target14/163.56 shots/match
53.1%Possession14/1649.3%
5.86 corners/matchCorners14/164.19 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.21 fouls/matchFouls14/1610 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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