PitchMath
Championship · 2025Deepdale

Preston North End 3–1 Stoke City · Championship

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Preston North End won 3–1.

Shots
1313
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
2.810.99
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Preston North End beat Stoke City 3–1. Recorded in this match (Preston North End – Stoke City): shots 13–13, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 2.81–0.99, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stoke City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stoke City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.18 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Preston North End, Stoke City.

6.21 days ▲Rest daysPreston North End · Stoke City6.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPreston North EndStoke CityBaseline
Rest days6.21 days6.21 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots13 shotsPreston North End 13 shots, Stoke City 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsPreston North End 3 shots, Stoke City 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.81 xG0.99 xGPreston North End 2.81 xG, Stoke City 0.99 xG
  • Possession46%54%Preston North End 46%, Stoke City 54%
  • Corners7 corners9 cornersPreston North End 7 corners, Stoke City 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsPreston North End 12 fouls, Stoke City 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Steven​ N'Zonzi · Stoke City · 35′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEric Bocat · Stoke City · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMillion Manhoef · Stoke City · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Bocat · Stoke City · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMilan Smit · Stoke City · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Vukčević · Preston North End · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrew Hughes · Preston North End · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Whiteman · Preston North End · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJesurun Rak-Sakyi · Stoke City · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Bocat · Stoke City · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Rigo · Stoke City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Rigo · Stoke City · 72′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMillion Manhoef · Stoke City · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJun-Ho Bae · Stoke City · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 82′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 24′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 55′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedSorba Thomas · Stoke City · 4′ · 0.25 xG · goalJesurun Rak-Sakyi · Stoke City · 90′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 15′ · 0.44 xG · goalMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 57′ · 0.52 xG · goalMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 37′ · 0.61 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 60′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Preston North End: 13 shots, 3 on target, 2.80 xG. Stoke City: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Alfie Devine · Preston North End · 15′Milutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 57′Alfie Devine · Preston North End · 60′Sorba Thomas · Stoke City · 4′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Preston North End 2.80 xG · Stoke City 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Preston North End
3Draws
1Stoke City
Stoke City — Preston North End · Championship0–0
Preston North End — Stoke City · Championship1–1
Stoke City — Preston North End · Championship0–0
Preston North End — Stoke City · Championship1–2
Stoke City — Preston North End · Championship0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Preston North End favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Stoke City in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Preston North End39 matchesStoke City39 matches
1.15 goals/matchGoals scored39/391.18 goals/match
1.26 goals/matchGoals allowed39/39▲ 1.1 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals39/391.07 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots38/38▲ 11.3 shots/match
3.45 shots/matchShots on target38/38▲ 4.03 shots/match
45.1%Possession38/38● 52.1%
4.26 corners/matchCorners38/38● 5.76 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls38/3710.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples39 / 39home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPreston North EndStoke City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headPreston North End — Stoke City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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