PitchMath
Championship · 2025The Den

Millwall 2–0 Queens Park Rangers · Championship

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Millwall won 2–0.

Shots
115
Shots on target
41
Expected goals
1.530.14
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millwall beat Queens Park Rangers 2–0. Recorded in this match (Millwall – Queens Park Rangers): shots 11–5, shots on target 4–1, expected goals 1.53–0.14, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Queens Park Rangers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Queens Park Rangers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots5 shotsMillwall 11 shots, Queens Park Rangers 5 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots1 shotMillwall 4 shots, Queens Park Rangers 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.53 xG0.14 xGMillwall 1.53 xG, Queens Park Rangers 0.14 xG
  • Possession43%57%Millwall 43%, Queens Park Rangers 57%
  • Corners6 corners10 cornersMillwall 6 corners, Queens Park Rangers 10 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls14 foulsMillwall 6 fouls, Queens Park Rangers 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Paul Smyth · Queens Park Rangers · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlias Chair · Queens Park Rangers · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFemi Azeez · Millwall · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRumarn Burrell · Queens Park Rangers · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDerek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall · 3′ · 0.04 xG · goalTristan Crama · Millwall · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaul Smyth · Queens Park Rangers · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Madsen · Queens Park Rangers · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCaleb Taylor · Millwall · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThierno Ballo · Millwall · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 17′ · 0.07 xG · goalJosh Coburn · Millwall · 26′ · 0.10 xG · on targetZak Sturge · Millwall · 38′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTristan Crama · Millwall · 7′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJosh Coburn · Millwall · 76′ · 0.29 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Millwall: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.04 xG. Queens Park Rangers: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Derek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall · 3′Camiel Neghli · Millwall · 17′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Millwall 1.04 xG · Queens Park Rangers 0.13 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Millwall
1Draws
1Queens Park Rangers
Queens Park Rangers — Millwall · Championship1–2
Millwall — Queens Park Rangers · Championship2–1
Queens Park Rangers — Millwall · Championship1–1
Queens Park Rangers — Millwall · Championship2–0
Millwall — Queens Park Rangers · Championship2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millwall favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Queens Park Rangers in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millwall43 matchesQueens Park Rangers43 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored43/431.35 goals/match
1.09 goals/match ▲Goals allowed43/431.51 goals/match
1.3 xG/match ▲Expected goals43/431.14 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots42/4212.4 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target42/423.88 shots/match
46.3% ●Possession42/4245.7%
5.52 corners/match ●Corners42/424.83 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls41/4110.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples43 / 43home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillwallQueens Park Rangers
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headMillwall — Queens Park Rangers
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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