Championship · 2025Sat, 2 May 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timePride Park StadiumFull-time recap
12Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricDerby CountySheffield United
Shots17 shots/match15 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match8 shots/match
Expected goals2.11 xG/match1.85 xG/match
Possession51%49%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Carlton Morris · Derby County · 35′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJoe Ward · Derby County · 1′ · 0.02 xG · on targetGustavo Hamer · Sheffield United · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMax Johnston · Derby County · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJaydon Banel · Derby County · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatt Clarke · Derby County · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoe Ward · Derby County · 55′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSydie Peck · Sheffield United · 69′ · 0.03 xG · goalHarrison Burrows · Sheffield United · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJaydon Banel · Derby County · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoe Ward · Derby County · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatt Clarke · Derby County · 43′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHarrison Burrows · Sheffield United · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Hamer · Sheffield United · 15′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDavid Ozoh · Derby County · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThomas Cannon · Sheffield United · 37′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCallum O'Hare · Sheffield United · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 2′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSydie Peck · Sheffield United · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Sheffield United · 68′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMatt Clarke · Derby County · 22′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDavid Ozoh · Derby County · 24′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedThomas Cannon · Sheffield United · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDanny Ings · Sheffield United · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedThomas Cannon · Sheffield United · 62′ · 0.14 xG · goalMatt Clarke · Derby County · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSydie Peck · Sheffield United · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPatrick Bamford · Sheffield United · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on targetSondre Langås · Derby County · 74′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedDanny Ings · Sheffield United · 86′ · 0.44 xG · on targetSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 5′ · 0.83 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Derby County: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.91 xG. Sheffield United: 15 shots, 8 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Sammie Szmodics · Derby County · 5′Thomas Cannon · Sheffield United · 62′Sydie Peck · Sheffield United · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 1.91 xG · Sheffield United 1.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Sheffield United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Sheffield United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sheffield United have a visible away split

moderate

Sheffield United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/matchShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Derby County, Sheffield United.

6.9 daysRest daysDerby County · Sheffield United6.9 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDerby CountySheffield UnitedBaseline
Rest days6.9 days6.9 days
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Derby County
0Draws
0Sheffield United
Sheffield UnitedDerby County · Championship13

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Derby County favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Sheffield United in 3 · 8 too close

1.46 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 46/461.43 goals/match
1.28 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 46/461.43 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 46/461.56 xG/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 46/461.25 xG/match
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 45/4513.5 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 45/4512.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 45/454.27 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 45/454.29 shots/match
44.7%Possessionseason · 45/4552.3%
4.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 45/456.67 corners/match
5.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 45/454.98 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 44/4410.4 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 46/4622%
91%Scoring frequencyseason · 46/4676%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Derby County12.5
Sheffield United68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Derby County38.2
Sheffield United71.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Derby County40.3
Sheffield United33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Derby County47.9
Sheffield United64.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Derby County93.8
Sheffield United35.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 48%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Derby County27.1
Sheffield United93.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Derby County40.6
Sheffield United68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.92 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots5/514.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match
49%Possession5/559.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
Cards0/0
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.74 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots10/1013.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/105 shots/match
47.9%Possession10/1053.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
Cards0/0
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

46 / 46 matches
1.46 goals/matchGoals scored46/461.43 goals/match
1.28 goals/matchGoals allowed46/461.43 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals46/461.56 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots45/4513.5 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target45/454.27 shots/match
44.7%Possession45/4552.3%
4.53 corners/matchCorners45/456.67 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls44/4410.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

23 / 23 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored23/231.22 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed23/231.43 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals23/231.27 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots22/2211.5 shots/match
3.77 shots/matchShots on target22/223.73 shots/match
49.2%Possession22/2246.7%
5.55 corners/matchCorners22/225.77 corners/match
Cards0/0
11.8 fouls/matchFouls22/2210.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples46 / 46home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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