Rosario Central
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026Rosario Central 3–1 CA Independiente · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Rosario Central won 3–1.
- Shots
- 14–6
- Shots on target
- 6–4
- Expected goals
- 1.79–0.89
- Possession
- 60%–40%
Full time
What the match recorded
Rosario Central beat Independiente 3–1. Recorded in this match (Rosario Central – Independiente): shots 14–6, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.79–0.89, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Rosario Central's recent record differs from the season
moderateRosario Central's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.8 goals/match | 1.28 goals/match | 1.05 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Rosario Central have a visible home split
moderateRosario Central's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 16.2 shots/match | 13.4 shots/match | 11.8 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Both teams have elevated corners records
weakEach team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.
Window: season
| Metric | Rosario Central | Independiente | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | 4.94 corners/match | 5.79 corners/match | 4.34 corners/match |
Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.
This match
Match statistics
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Rosario Central favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · CA Independiente in 4 · 1 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
Rosario Central / CA Independiente
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
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