Beijing Guoan
Super League · 2026Beijing Guoan 3–3 Yunnan Yukun · Super League
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun drew 3–3.
- Shots
- 17–14
- Shots on target
- 8–5
- Expected goals
- 2.56–1.93
- Possession
- 60%–40%
Full time
What the match recorded
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Beijing Guoan – Yunnan Yukun): shots 17–14, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 2.56–1.93, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Beijing Guoan's recent record differs from the season
moderateBeijing Guoan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 3.2 goals/match | 2 goals/match | 1.4 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Beijing Guoan have a visible home split
moderateBeijing Guoan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 18.2 shots/match | 15.8 shots/match | 12.8 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
The teams have contrasting possession records
moderateBeijing Guoan have recorded the higher season possession share.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.
Window: season
| Metric | Beijing Guoan | Yunnan Yukun | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession | 60.6% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Beijing Guoan favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Yunnan Yukun in 0 · 4 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches
Beijing Guoan / Yunnan Yukun
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
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