PitchMath
K League 1 · 2026Sungui Arena Park

Incheon United 1–2 Ulsan HD · K League 1

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Ulsan HD won 1–2.

Shots
1313
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
1.852.6
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Incheon United 2–1. Recorded in this match (Incheon United – Ulsan Hyundai FC): shots 13–13, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 1.85–2.6, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Ulsan Hyundai FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1 goal/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Incheon United have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.4% ●PossessionIncheon United · Ulsan Hyundai FC45.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricIncheon UnitedUlsan Hyundai FCBaseline
Possession54.4%45.7%53.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots13 shotsIncheon United 13 shots, Ulsan HD 13 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shotsIncheon United 2 shots, Ulsan HD 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.85 xG2.6 xGIncheon United 1.85 xG, Ulsan HD 2.6 xG
  • Possession55%45%Incheon United 55%, Ulsan HD 45%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersIncheon United 3 corners, Ulsan HD 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls13 foulsIncheon United 8 fouls, Ulsan HD 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Incheon United
3Draws
1Ulsan HD
Ulsan HD — Incheon United · Korean FA Cup3–0
Incheon United — Ulsan HD · K League 10–0
Incheon United — Ulsan HD · K League 11–1
Ulsan HD — Incheon United · K League 13–3
Incheon United — Ulsan HD · K League 13–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Incheon United favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Ulsan HD in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Incheon United7 matchesUlsan HD6 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲ 0.83 goals/match
1.9 xG/matchExpected goals7/61.96 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots7/6▲ 14.3 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲ 5 shots/match
54.4% ●Possession7/645.7%
4.71 corners/match ●Corners7/64.33 corners/match
9.86 fouls/matchFouls7/612.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 11:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in K League 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIncheon UnitedUlsan HD
CompetitionK League 1
Head-to-headIncheon United — Ulsan HD
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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