PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vasco da Gama 3–1 Cruzeiro · Serie A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vasco da Gama won 3–1.

Shots
2111
Shots on target
96
Expected goals
3.240.61
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vasco da Gama beat Cruzeiro 3–1. Recorded in this match (Vasco da Gama – Cruzeiro): shots 21–11, shots on target 9–6, expected goals 3.24–0.61, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots11 shotsVasco da Gama 21 shots, Cruzeiro 11 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots6 shotsVasco da Gama 9 shots, Cruzeiro 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.24 xG0.61 xGVasco da Gama 3.24 xG, Cruzeiro 0.61 xG
  • Possession45%55%Vasco da Gama 45%, Cruzeiro 55%
  • Corners11 corners3 cornersVasco da Gama 11 corners, Cruzeiro 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls12 foulsVasco da Gama 15 fouls, Cruzeiro 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardVasco da Gama 2 cards, Cruzeiro 1 card
  • Passes386 passes484 passesVasco da Gama 386 passes, Cruzeiro 484 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.6%85.3%Vasco da Gama 80.6%, Cruzeiro 85.3%
  • Shots inside box17 shots4 shotsVasco da Gama 17 shots, Cruzeiro 4 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks4 blocksVasco da Gama 6 blocks, Cruzeiro 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves7 savesVasco da Gama 5 saves, Cruzeiro 7 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesVasco da Gama 1 offside, Cruzeiro 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luciano Rodríguez · Cruzeiro · 8′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFacundo Colidio · Vasco da Gama · 31′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFacundo Colidio · Vasco da Gama · 41′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFacundo Colidio · Vasco da Gama · 43′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSantiago Sosa · Vasco da Gama · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Colidio · Vasco da Gama · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Pereira · Cruzeiro · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Costa · Cruzeiro · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoão Costa · Cruzeiro · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdson · Vasco da Gama · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrés Gómez · Vasco da Gama · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAndrés Gómez · Vasco da Gama · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKaique Kenji · Cruzeiro · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKaique Kenji · Cruzeiro · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFelipe Morais · Cruzeiro · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNéiser Villarreal · Cruzeiro · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Colidio · Vasco da Gama · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuciano Rodríguez · Cruzeiro · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Henrique · Vasco da Gama · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Freitas · Vasco da Gama · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdson · Vasco da Gama · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Pereira · Cruzeiro · 66′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPaulo Henrique · Vasco da Gama · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Colidio · Vasco da Gama · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdson · Vasco da Gama · 39′ · 0.09 xG · on targetSantiago Sosa · Vasco da Gama · 41′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDavid · Vasco da Gama · 90′ · 0.21 xG · goalFacundo Colidio · Vasco da Gama · 57′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Morais · Cruzeiro · 90′ · 0.37 xG · goalTchê Tchê · Vasco da Gama · 33′ · 0.38 xG · goalAdson · Vasco da Gama · 15′ · 0.80 xG · on targetLucas Freitas · Vasco da Gama · 55′ · 0.94 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Vasco da Gama: 21 shots, 9 on target, 3.19 xG. Cruzeiro: 11 shots, 6 on target, 0.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Tchê Tchê · Vasco da Gama · 33′Lucas Freitas · Vasco da Gama · 55′David · Vasco da Gama · 90′Felipe Morais · Cruzeiro · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Vasco da Gama 3.19 xG · Cruzeiro 0.64 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Vasco da Gama
3Draws
1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro — Vasco da Gama · Serie A3–3
Vasco da Gama — Cruzeiro · Serie A2–0
Cruzeiro — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–0
Cruzeiro — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–1
Vasco da Gama — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vasco da Gama favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vasco da Gama23 matchesCruzeiro23 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.48 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/191.32 xG/match
17.3 shots/match ▲Shots23/2314.3 shots/match
5.26 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/234.87 shots/match
53.3%Possession23/23● 54.9%
5.3 corners/match ●Corners23/235.26 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls23/2314.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 04:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVasco da GamaCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVasco da Gama — Cruzeiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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