PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Coritiba 1–3 Palmeiras · Serie A

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 1–3.

Shots
1714
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
0.710.9
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Coritiba 3–1. Recorded in this match (Coritiba – Palmeiras): shots 17–14, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 0.71–0.9, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Coritiba's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Coritiba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Palmeiras have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.4%PossessionCoritiba · Palmeiras● 49.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCoritibaPalmeirasBaseline
Possession39.4%49.3%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots14 shotsCoritiba 17 shots, Palmeiras 14 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsCoritiba 6 shots, Palmeiras 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG0.9 xGCoritiba 0.71 xG, Palmeiras 0.9 xG
  • Possession52%48%Coritiba 52%, Palmeiras 48%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersCoritiba 8 corners, Palmeiras 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsCoritiba 10 fouls, Palmeiras 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Coritiba
0Draws
4Palmeiras
Coritiba — Palmeiras · Serie A0–2
Palmeiras — Coritiba · Serie A3–1
Palmeiras — Coritiba · Serie A4–0
Coritiba — Palmeiras · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Coritiba favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Palmeiras in 9 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Coritiba19 matchesPalmeiras19 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.74 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 0.74 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals15/150.85 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 13.2 shots/match
3.42 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 4.58 shots/match
39.4%Possession19/19● 49.3%
3.47 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5.89 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls19/1914.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCoritibaPalmeiras
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCoritiba — Palmeiras
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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