PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Barradao

Vitória 4–1 Coritiba · Serie A

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vitória won 4–1.

Shots
115
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
2.060.63
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vitoria beat Coritiba 4–1. Recorded in this match (Vitoria – Coritiba): shots 11–5, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 2.06–0.63, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vitoria's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vitoria's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.23 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.23 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vitoria have a visible home split

moderate

Vitoria's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots5 shotsVitória 11 shots, Coritiba 5 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotVitória 7 shots, Coritiba 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.06 xG0.63 xGVitória 2.06 xG, Coritiba 0.63 xG
  • Possession61%39%Vitória 61%, Coritiba 39%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersVitória 2 corners, Coritiba 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsVitória 13 fouls, Coritiba 11 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vitória favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Coritiba in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vitória13 matchesCoritiba14 matches
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/141.14 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed13/14▲ 1.21 goals/match
0.81 xG/matchExpected goals10/100.82 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots13/1410.2 shots/match
4.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/143 shots/match
43.9% ●Possession13/1438.6%
3.77 corners/match ●Corners13/143.21 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/42.25 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1411.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVitóriaCoritiba
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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