PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Fluminense 3–1 Corinthians · Serie A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 3–1.

Shots
2012
Shots on target
104
Expected goals
1.840.56
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Corinthians 3–1. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Corinthians): shots 20–12, shots on target 10–4, expected goals 1.84–0.56, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Corinthians's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Corinthians's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Corinthians have a visible away split

moderate

Corinthians's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots12 shotsFluminense 20 shots, Corinthians 12 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots4 shotsFluminense 10 shots, Corinthians 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.84 xG0.56 xGFluminense 1.84 xG, Corinthians 0.56 xG
  • Possession60%40%Fluminense 60%, Corinthians 40%
  • Corners8 corners10 cornersFluminense 8 corners, Corinthians 10 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsFluminense 10 fouls, Corinthians 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fluminense
2Draws
2Corinthians
Fluminense — Corinthians · Serie A0–1
Corinthians — Fluminense · Serie A0–2
Fluminense — Corinthians · Serie A0–0
Corinthians — Fluminense · Serie A3–0
Fluminense — Corinthians · Serie A3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Corinthians in 0 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense9 matchesCorinthians9 matches
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.11 goals/match
1.38 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/50.81 xG/match
15.3 shots/match ▲Shots9/910.8 shots/match
6.44 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/93 shots/match
59.3% ●Possession9/956%
5.44 corners/match ●Corners9/94.89 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls9/914.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 2 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseCorinthians
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headFluminense — Corinthians
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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