Atlético Mineiro
Serie A · 2026Atlético Mineiro 1–0 São Paulo · Serie A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Atlético Mineiro won 1–0.
- Shots
- 13–12
- Shots on target
- 4–3
- Expected goals
- 1.07–0.58
- Possession
- 29%–71%
Full time
What the match recorded
Atletico-MG beat Sao Paulo 1–0. Recorded in this match (Atletico-MG – Sao Paulo): shots 13–12, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.07–0.58, possession 29%–71%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
moderateA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sao Paulo.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Atletico-MG | Sao Paulo | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 4.06 days | 2.98 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 2 matches | 2 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
Sao Paulo have a visible away split
weakSao Paulo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: away
| Metric | Away only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 8.5 shots/match | 11.4 shots/match | 12.9 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
The teams have contrasting possession records
moderateSao Paulo have recorded the higher season possession share.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.
Window: season
| Metric | Atletico-MG | Sao Paulo | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession | 47.3% | 55.7% | 50.2% |
Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 8 · 5 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches
Atlético Mineiro / São Paulo
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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