PitchMath
Liga Profesional de Fútbol · 2026Gigante de Arroyito

Rosario Central 2–1 Sarmiento · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Rosario Central won 2–1.

Shots
225
Shots on target
61
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rosario Central beat Sarmiento Junin 2–1. Recorded in this match (Rosario Central – Sarmiento Junin): shots 22–5, shots on target 6–1, possession 64%–36%, corners 4–3. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sarmiento Junin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sarmiento Junin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rosario Central have a visible home split

moderate

Rosario Central's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rosario Central show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rosario Central's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsRosario Central · Sarmiento Junin10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRosario CentralSarmiento JuninBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match15.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots5 shotsRosario Central 22 shots, Sarmiento 5 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotRosario Central 6 shots, Sarmiento 1 shot
  • Possession64%36%Rosario Central 64%, Sarmiento 36%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersRosario Central 4 corners, Sarmiento 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsRosario Central 10 fouls, Sarmiento 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsRosario Central 1 card, Sarmiento 0 cards
  • Passes502 passes283 passesRosario Central 502 passes, Sarmiento 283 passes
  • Pass accuracy84%71%Rosario Central 84%, Sarmiento 71%
  • Shots inside box13 shots4 shotsRosario Central 13 shots, Sarmiento 4 shots
  • Blocked shots10 blocks0 blocksRosario Central 10 blocks, Sarmiento 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves5 savesRosario Central 0 saves, Sarmiento 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideRosario Central 2 offsides, Sarmiento 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rosario Central favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Sarmiento in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rosario Central15 matchesSarmiento15 matches
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/150.8 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed15/151.13 goals/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots15/1510.3 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/153.53 shots/match
57.9% ●Possession15/1548.1%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners15/153.67 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards8/114.27 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsRosario CentralSarmiento
CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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