PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Do Dragão

FC Porto 2–0 Tondela · Primeira Liga

2–0Historical match

Tondela

LDDLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Porto won 2–0.

Shots
225
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
2.950.11
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Porto beat Tondela 2–0. Recorded in this match (FC Porto – Tondela): shots 22–5, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 2.95–0.11, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tondela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tondela's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.74 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Tondela show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Tondela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Porto · Tondela10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC PortoTondelaBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against9.39 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Porto have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.2% ●PossessionFC Porto · Tondela43.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC PortoTondelaBaseline
Possession55.2%43.5%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots5 shotsFC Porto 22 shots, Tondela 5 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsFC Porto 8 shots, Tondela 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.95 xG0.11 xGFC Porto 2.95 xG, Tondela 0.11 xG
  • Possession60%40%FC Porto 60%, Tondela 40%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersFC Porto 8 corners, Tondela 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls11 foulsFC Porto 12 fouls, Tondela 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards5 cardsFC Porto 4 cards, Tondela 5 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joe Hodge · Tondela · 24′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJakub Kiwior · FC Porto · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlan Varela · FC Porto · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZaidu Sanusi · FC Porto · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTiago Manso · Tondela · 74′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHugo Félix · Tondela · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVictor Froholdt · FC Porto · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlan Varela · FC Porto · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuan Rodríguez · Tondela · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRony Lopes · Tondela · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Gomes · FC Porto · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan Bednarek · FC Porto · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Costa · FC Porto · 72′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVictor Froholdt · FC Porto · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVictor Froholdt · FC Porto · 65′ · 0.07 xG · goalOskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 17′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVictor Froholdt · FC Porto · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Costa · FC Porto · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kiwior · FC Porto · 33′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 48′ · 0.28 xG · goalJan Bednarek · FC Porto · 88′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedVictor Froholdt · FC Porto · 72′ · 0.52 xG · on targetAlan Varela · FC Porto · 39′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Porto: 22 shots, 8 on target, 3.03 xG. Tondela: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Gabri Veiga · FC Porto · 48′Victor Froholdt · FC Porto · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Porto 3.03 xG · Tondela 0.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Porto
0Draws
0Tondela
Tondela — FC Porto · Primeira Liga0–2
FC Porto — Tondela · Primeira Liga4–0
Tondela — FC Porto · Primeira Liga1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Porto favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Tondela in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Porto31 matchesTondela31 matches
2.03 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/310.74 goals/match
0.45 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.61 goals/match
1.84 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.07 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots31/3110.2 shots/match
5.32 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/313.35 shots/match
55.2% ●Possession31/3143.5%
5.58 corners/match ●Corners31/313.97 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards25/242.92 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls31/3114.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC PortoTondela
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Porto — Tondela
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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