PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Rio Ave 3–1 Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave

WWLDL
3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rio Ave won 3–1.

Shots
1215
Shots on target
85
Expected goals
2.381.84
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rio Ave beat Casa Pia 3–1. Recorded in this match (Rio Ave – Casa Pia): shots 12–15, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 2.38–1.84, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots15 shotsRio Ave 12 shots, Casa Pia 15 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots5 shotsRio Ave 8 shots, Casa Pia 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.38 xG1.84 xGRio Ave 2.38 xG, Casa Pia 1.84 xG
  • Possession51%49%Rio Ave 51%, Casa Pia 49%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersRio Ave 9 corners, Casa Pia 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls23 foulsRio Ave 10 fouls, Casa Pia 23 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardRio Ave 0 cards, Casa Pia 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJosé Fonte · Casa Pia · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarios Vrousai · Rio Ave · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCassiano · Casa Pia · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosé Fonte · Casa Pia · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrandon Aguilera · Rio Ave · 62′ · 0.04 xG · goalMarios Vrousai · Rio Ave · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 73′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKelian Nsona · Casa Pia · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 2′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRenato Nhaga · Casa Pia · 16′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCassiano · Casa Pia · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYassin Oukili · Casa Pia · 6′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Ndoj · Rio Ave · 28′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 2′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKelian Nsona · Casa Pia · 82′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 2′ · 0.14 xG · on targetClayton · Rio Ave · 75′ · 0.14 xG · on targetClaudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 83′ · 0.24 xG · goalGaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia · 52′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 86′ · 0.31 xG · goalClayton · Rio Ave · 24′ · 0.34 xG · on targetCassiano · Casa Pia · 4′ · 0.50 xG · off target or blockedAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 24′ · 0.66 xG · on targetAndré Luiz · Rio Ave · 54′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rio Ave: 12 shots, 8 on target, 2.37 xG. Casa Pia: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′André Luiz · Rio Ave · 54′Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave · 62′André Luiz · Rio Ave · 86′Claudio Mendes · Casa Pia · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rio Ave 2.37 xG · Casa Pia 1.81 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Rio Ave
3Draws
1Casa Pia
Casa Pia — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga2–1
Rio Ave — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga2–2
Rio Ave — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga1–0
Casa Pia — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga1–1
Rio Ave — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rio Ave favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Casa Pia in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rio Ave18 matchesCasa Pia18 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.06 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.78 goals/match
1.04 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/170.87 xG/match
9.78 shots/match ▲Shots18/188.78 shots/match
4.17 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.06 shots/match
46.9% ●Possession18/1846.2%
4.22 corners/match ●Corners18/183.89 corners/match
3.18 cards/matchCards17/173.24 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls18/1816.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRio AveCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headRio Ave — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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