PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estadio da Madeira

CD Nacional 1–4 Sporting · Primeira Liga

1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sporting won 1–4.

Shots
327
Shots on target
17
Expected goals
0.722.67
Possession
27%73%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sporting CP beat Nacional 4–1. Recorded in this match (Nacional – Sporting CP): shots 3–27, shots on target 1–7, expected goals 0.72–2.67, possession 27%–73%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.67 corners/matchCornersNacional · Sporting CP● 9.33 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNacionalSporting CPBaseline
Corners7.67 corners/match9.33 corners/match3.25 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Sporting CP show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sporting CP's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsNacional · Sporting CP24.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNacionalSporting CPBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match24.3 shots/match10.3 shots/match
Shots against19.7 shots/match5.67 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Sporting CP have recorded the higher season possession share.

41%PossessionNacional · Sporting CP● 65.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNacionalSporting CPBaseline
Possession41%65.7%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots3 shots27 shotsCD Nacional 3 shots, Sporting 27 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot7 shotsCD Nacional 1 shot, Sporting 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.72 xG2.67 xGCD Nacional 0.72 xG, Sporting 2.67 xG
  • Possession27%73%CD Nacional 27%, Sporting 73%
  • Corners3 corners13 cornersCD Nacional 3 corners, Sporting 13 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls7 foulsCD Nacional 18 fouls, Sporting 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsCD Nacional 3 cards, Sporting 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Trincão · Sporting CP · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLéo Santos · Nacional · 3′ · 0.02 xG · goalZeno Debast · Sporting CP · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Kochorashvili · Sporting CP · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Inácio · Sporting CP · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Inácio · Sporting CP · 56′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorten Hjulmand · Sporting CP · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMorten Hjulmand · Sporting CP · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Trincão · Sporting CP · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Trincão · Sporting CP · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 76′ · 0.07 xG · goalPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 65′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Trincão · Sporting CP · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 11′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 45′ · 0.10 xG · on targetGeny Catamo · Sporting CP · 19′ · 0.12 xG · on targetFrancisco Trincão · Sporting CP · 27′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 9′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 65′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedZeno Debast · Sporting CP · 40′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · Sporting CP · 83′ · 0.23 xG · goalPedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 52′ · 0.24 xG · goalMatheus Dias · Nacional · 44′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting CP · 65′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedLucas João · Nacional · 81′ · 0.40 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nacional: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.67 xG. Sporting CP: 27 shots, 7 on target, 2.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Léo Santos · Nacional · 3′Pedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 52′Pedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 76′Conrad Harder · Sporting CP · 83′Pedro Gonçalves · Sporting CP · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nacional 0.67 xG · Sporting CP 2.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0CD Nacional
0Draws
2Sporting
Sporting — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga2–0
CD Nacional — Sporting · Primeira Liga1–6

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CD Nacional favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Sporting in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CD Nacional3 matchesSporting3 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 4 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 0.33 goals/match
0.85 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 2.85 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲ 24.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 9.67 shots/match
41%Possession3/3● 65.7%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/3● 9.33 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
19 fouls/matchFouls3/38.33 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Aug 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCD NacionalSporting
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCD Nacional — Sporting
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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