PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025Cegeka Arena

KRC Genk 2–1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KRC Genk won 2–1.

Shots
2311
Shots on target
86
Expected goals
2.290.97
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Genk beat OH Leuven 2–1. Recorded in this match (Genk – OH Leuven): shots 23–11, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 2.29–0.97, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

OH Leuven's recent record differs from the season

moderate

OH Leuven's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Genk have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.7% ●PossessionGenk · OH Leuven43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGenkOH LeuvenBaseline
Possession63.7%43.8%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Genk show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genk's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.9 shots/match ▲ShotsGenk · OH Leuven12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGenkOH LeuvenBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots11 shotsKRC Genk 23 shots, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 11 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots6 shotsKRC Genk 8 shots, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.29 xG0.97 xGKRC Genk 2.29 xG, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0.97 xG
  • Possession66%34%KRC Genk 66%, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 34%
  • Corners10 corners2 cornersKRC Genk 10 corners, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsKRC Genk 13 fouls, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsKRC Genk 0 cards, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mathieu Maertens · OH Leuven · 4′ · 0.01 xG · on targetZakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoah Adedeji-Sternberg · Genk · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYaimar Medina · Genk · 27′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEwoud Pletinckx · OH Leuven · 46′ · 0.01 xG · on targetYaimar Medina · Genk · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSory Kaba · OH Leuven · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDaan Heymans · Genk · 74′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · OH Leuven · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCasper Terho · OH Leuven · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Hrošovský · Genk · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThibaud Verlinden · OH Leuven · 17′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNoah Adedeji-Sternberg · Genk · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathieu Maertens · OH Leuven · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYaimar Medina · Genk · 58′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPatrik Hrošovský · Genk · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Karetsas · Genk · 43′ · 0.05 xG · on targetChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · OH Leuven · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCasper Terho · OH Leuven · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedZakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYira Collins Sor · Genk · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetBryan Heynen · Genk · 34′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · OH Leuven · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDaan Heymans · Genk · 8′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNoah Adedeji-Sternberg · Genk · 10′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBryan Heynen · Genk · 28′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDaan Heymans · Genk · 81′ · 0.15 xG · goalPatrik Hrošovský · Genk · 57′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedZakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 12′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedZakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 20′ · 0.23 xG · on targetKonstantinos Karetsas · Genk · 84′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedMujaid Sadick · Genk · 50′ · 0.40 xG · goalSory Kaba · OH Leuven · 78′ · 0.65 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Genk: 23 shots, 8 on target, 2.28 xG. OH Leuven: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mujaid Sadick · Genk · 50′Daan Heymans · Genk · 81′Sory Kaba · OH Leuven · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Genk 2.28 xG · OH Leuven 1.01 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3KRC Genk
0Draws
2Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Oud-Heverlee Leuven — KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League1–2
KRC Genk — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League2–0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven — KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League3–1
Oud-Heverlee Leuven — KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League2–1
KRC Genk — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: KRC Genk favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Oud-Heverlee Leuven in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

KRC Genk17 matchesOud-Heverlee Leuven17 matches
1.35 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/171.06 goals/match
1.24 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.53 goals/match
1.43 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/160.98 xG/match
16.9 shots/match ▲Shots17/1712.2 shots/match
5.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/174.18 shots/match
63.7% ●Possession17/1743.8%
6.06 corners/match ●Corners17/174.29 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards16/163.19 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls17/1716.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKRC GenkOud-Heverlee Leuven
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headKRC Genk — Oud-Heverlee Leuven
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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