PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025Cegeka Arena

KRC Genk 3–2 SV Zulte Waregem · Belgian Pro League

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KRC Genk won 3–2.

Shots
118
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
2.241.36
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Genk beat Zulte Waregem 3–2. Recorded in this match (Genk – Zulte Waregem): shots 11–8, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 2.24–1.36, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Genk show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genk's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsGenk · Zulte Waregem10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGenkZulte WaregemBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match14.7 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Zulte Waregem's recent record differs from the season

weak

Zulte Waregem's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Genk have recorded the higher season possession share.

60% ●PossessionGenk · Zulte Waregem43.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGenkZulte WaregemBaseline
Possession60%43.3%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsKRC Genk 11 shots, SV Zulte Waregem 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsKRC Genk 4 shots, SV Zulte Waregem 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.24 xG1.36 xGKRC Genk 2.24 xG, SV Zulte Waregem 1.36 xG
  • Possession46%54%KRC Genk 46%, SV Zulte Waregem 54%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersKRC Genk 5 corners, SV Zulte Waregem 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls21 foulsKRC Genk 9 fouls, SV Zulte Waregem 21 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsKRC Genk 2 cards, SV Zulte Waregem 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joris Kayembe · Genk · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBryan Heynen · Genk · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYaimar Medina · Genk · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerxho Ujka · Zulte Waregem · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Adedeji-Sternberg · Genk · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJunya Ito · Genk · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Karetsas · Genk · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJeppe Erenbjerg · Zulte Waregem · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoseph Opoku · Zulte Waregem · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedStavros Gavriel · Zulte Waregem · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetZakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 75′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJakob Kiilerich · Zulte Waregem · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnosike Ementa · Zulte Waregem · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJeppe Erenbjerg · Zulte Waregem · 2′ · 0.16 xG · goalRobin Mirisola · Genk · 7′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedZakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 56′ · 0.32 xG · goalMujaid Sadick · Genk · 13′ · 0.69 xG · goalAnton Tanghe · Zulte Waregem · 35′ · 0.82 xG · goalRobin Mirisola · Genk · 30′ · 0.94 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Genk: 11 shots, 4 on target, 2.42 xG. Zulte Waregem: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mujaid Sadick · Genk · 13′Robin Mirisola · Genk · 30′Zakaria El Ouahdi · Genk · 56′Jeppe Erenbjerg · Zulte Waregem · 2′Anton Tanghe · Zulte Waregem · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Genk 2.42 xG · Zulte Waregem 1.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4KRC Genk
0Draws
0SV Zulte Waregem
KRC Genk — SV Zulte Waregem · Belgian Pro League1–0
SV Zulte Waregem — KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League1–4
KRC Genk — SV Zulte Waregem · Belgian Pro League2–0
SV Zulte Waregem — KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League2–6

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: KRC Genk favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · SV Zulte Waregem in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

KRC Genk5 matchesSV Zulte Waregem6 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/61.17 goals/match
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/62 goals/match
1.29 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/61.07 xG/match
15.4 shots/match ▲Shots5/610.2 shots/match
5.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/63.5 shots/match
60% ●Possession5/643.3%
5.4 corners/match ●Corners5/64.67 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/62.17 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/611.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 21:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKRC GenkSV Zulte Waregem
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headKRC Genk — SV Zulte Waregem
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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