PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

AS Roma

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaAS Roma
Shots11 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AS Roma's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AS Roma have a visible away split

weak

AS Roma's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

15.2 fouls/match▲FoulsFiorentina · AS Roma15 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaAS RomaBaseline
Fouls15.2 fouls/match15 fouls/match13.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.3%▲PossessionFiorentina · AS Roma59.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaAS RomaBaseline
Possession51.3%59.3%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AS Roma in 10 · 4 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲12.8 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.67 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.67 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲2.83 shots/match
51.3%Possessionseason · 6/659.3%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65.67 corners/match
4.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲2.67 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲1.33 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/615 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲67%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5
AS Roma82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina25
AS Roma55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina36.7
AS Roma88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina32.5
AS Roma12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina63.8
AS Roma46.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina42.5
AS Roma80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina43.1
AS Roma66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/561%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots6/6▲12.8 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.67 shots/match
51.3%Possession6/659.3%
4 corners/matchCorners6/65.67 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/61.33 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls6/615 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots6/6▲12.8 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.67 shots/match
51.3%Possession6/659.3%
4 corners/matchCorners6/65.67 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/61.33 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls6/615 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots3/310.3 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲4.67 shots/match
45.7%Possession3/358.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls3/317.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaAS Roma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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