Serie A · 2025Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

AC Milan

LW

1–0Full-time recap

Bologna

LW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AC Milan	Bologna
Shots	14 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	0 shots/match
Possession	39%	61%
Corners	7 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Bologna show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bologna's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsAC Milan · Bologna10 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	AC Milan	Bologna	Baseline
Shots	17.3 shots/match	10 shots/match	12.7 shots/match
Shots against	5.33 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bologna in 0 · 14 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/30.33 goals/match

0.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/30.67 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

17.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/310 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/313.7 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/31.33 shots/match

1.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/33 shots/match

52.7%Possessionseason · 3/348.7%

7 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/35 corners/match

3.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/34.33 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32.33 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/314 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

67%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan53.1

Bologna46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan77.1

Bologna14.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan89.6

Bologna56.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan96.9

Bologna15.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan28.1

Bologna75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan90.6

Bologna53.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan69.5

Bologna38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match

0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/30.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

17.3 shots/match▲Shots3/310 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match

52.7%Possession3/348.7%

7 corners/matchCorners3/35 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match

0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/30.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

17.3 shots/match▲Shots3/310 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match

52.7%Possession3/348.7%

7 corners/matchCorners3/35 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match

0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/30.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

17.3 shots/match▲Shots3/310 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match

52.7%Possession3/348.7%

7 corners/matchCorners3/35 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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