PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Milan 1–0 Bologna · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 1–0.

Shots
145
Shots on target
30
Expected goals
10.17
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Bologna 1–0. Recorded in this match (AC Milan – Bologna): shots 14–5, shots on target 3–0, expected goals 1–0.17, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bologna show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bologna's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAC Milan · Bologna10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanBolognaBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match10 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against5.33 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots5 shotsMilan 14 shots, Bologna 5 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots0 shotsMilan 3 shots, Bologna 0 shots
  • Expected goals1 xG0.17 xGMilan 1 xG, Bologna 0.17 xG
  • Possession39%61%Milan 39%, Bologna 61%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersMilan 7 corners, Bologna 4 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls16 foulsMilan 17 fouls, Bologna 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsMilan 3 cards, Bologna 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKoni De Winter · AC Milan · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNadir Zortea · Bologna · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Ricci · AC Milan · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Ricci · AC Milan · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRemo Freuler · Bologna · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCharalampos Lykogiannis · Bologna · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPervis Estupiñán · AC Milan · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 11′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGiovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 70′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 61′ · 0.16 xG · goalSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 83′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AC Milan: 14 shots, 3 on target, 0.97 xG. Bologna: 5 shots, 0 on target, 0.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Luka Modrić · AC Milan · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AC Milan 0.97 xG · Bologna 0.17 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Milan
2Draws
1Bologna
Milan — Bologna · Serie A3–1
Bologna — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Bologna · Serie A2–2
Bologna — Milan · Serie A0–2
Bologna — Milan · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bologna in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan3 matchesBologna3 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/30.67 goals/match
1.58 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/30.62 xG/match
17.3 shots/match ▲Shots3/310 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match
52.7% ●Possession3/348.7%
7 corners/match ●Corners3/35 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanBologna
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headMilan — Bologna
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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