PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia 2–1 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

Bahia

LWLWW
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 2–1.

Shots
1810
Shots on target
52
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Atletico-MG 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Atletico-MG): shots 18–10, shots on target 5–2, possession 47%–53%, corners 4–7. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.23 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.23 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico-MG show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atletico-MG's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsBahia · Atletico-MG16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBahiaAtletico-MGBaseline
Shots12 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots10 shotsBahia 18 shots, Atlético Mineiro 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsBahia 5 shots, Atlético Mineiro 2 shots
  • Possession47%53%Bahia 47%, Atlético Mineiro 53%
  • Corners4 corners7 cornersBahia 4 corners, Atlético Mineiro 7 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls11 foulsBahia 12 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsBahia 2 cards, Atlético Mineiro 2 cards
  • Passes373 passes418 passesBahia 373 passes, Atlético Mineiro 418 passes
  • Pass accuracy80%83%Bahia 80%, Atlético Mineiro 83%
  • Shots inside box7 shots3 shotsBahia 7 shots, Atlético Mineiro 3 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks4 blocksBahia 4 blocks, Atlético Mineiro 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save3 savesBahia 1 save, Atlético Mineiro 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides0 offsidesBahia 0 offsides, Atlético Mineiro 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Bahia
1Draws
1Atlético Mineiro
Bahia — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A3–0
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A1–1
Bahia — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A4–1
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia13 matchesAtlético Mineiro13 matches
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.08 goals/match
0.92 goals/matchGoals allowed13/130.92 goals/match
12 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 16.7 shots/match
3.54 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 5.08 shots/match
53.4%Possession13/13● 56.8%
4.69 corners/matchCorners13/13● 7.54 corners/match
2.46 cards/matchCards13/132.62 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1314 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Jul 2025, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsBahiaAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025
Head-to-headBahia — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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