PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Milan vs Atalanta · Serie A

Milan

WWDDW
vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
21
Expected goals
1.370.71
Shots
12.811.8
Possession
60.6%48.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 0 to Milan, 2 drawn, 3 to Atalanta. From this fixture's own record: atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Atalanta11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanAtalantaBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match19.2 shots/match15.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.6% ●PossessionMilan · Atalanta48.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanAtalantaBaseline
Possession60.6%48.2%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Atalanta in 0 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan5 matchesAtalanta5 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51 goal/match
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/50.71 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
60.6% ●Possession5/548.2%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Milan
2Draws
3Atalanta
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A2–3
Atalanta — Milan · Serie A1–1
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Atalanta — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headMilan — Atalanta
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required